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Historical market intelligence refers to trading and investment ideas derived from taking specific occurrences from the past to predict market moves of the future. Historical Market Intelligence is created by a unique mixture of human market savy and the power of the Market Information Machine (MIM), the revolutionary software tool of our parent company, Logical Information Machines (LIM).

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History provides us with solid documented facts on which to base our trading ideas. Many of the trading opinions found on the web today are based on momentum and unfounded hearsay. It makes more sense to trust a source of information that can justify commitment of capital based on historical facts. Bottom Line: History beats guessing every time.

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No investment decision should be based on any one indicator or information source. Top traders build ideas from several sources. The information you receive on MarketHistory.com should be viewed as a strong starting point. There is no substitute for your own research, but MarketHistory.com lets you filter the maze of news and fundamental broker research and see how they are turned into trading ideas. MarketHistory.com gives you access to a team of analysts with sophisticated technology so you can see how traders generate ideas and how the pros trade.

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One individual trader conducted his own study of all the queries in our stock market archives in order to determine our track record. After going through over 500 stock indices and individual ideas, he found very favorable numbers. He found that about 70 percent of all our trades were profitable. This 70 percent success ratio proved correct for both buy and sell recommendations.

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The basic rules of money management should not be abandoned in favor of any recommendations, regardless of the source. A good rule of thumb to follow would be not to risk over two percent of your trading capital on any MarketHistory.com idea. All investing should be done with the Stop-loss order (link to glossary) in mind to protect your capital in the event history does not prove useful in predicting the future.

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Fresh analysis on stocks S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 can be accessed from our site every day. New improvements to the infrastructure of our web site, will allow us to offer content and analysis for all 13,000 stocks in our data base that will be accessible by ticker symbol. This new feature will be available before the end of the third quarter.

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Institutional traders can look forward to several pieces per week about bonds, currencies, and energy. Specifically, we do a lot of work on the dollar versus all major currencies as well as the major crosses. We have a steady flow of yield curve analysis, and we thoroughly cover NYMEX energy futures. Futures traders can look forward to weekly coverage of major grain futures contracts at the CBOT and the CME. Our coverage of bond and stock futures is more frequent and quite extensive.

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We offer one subscription package - everything:

The MarketHisory Interactive subscription plan provides complete access to:

• all MarketHistory Trading Ideas written by our staff of analysts

• access to all historical trading ideas written since the site was launched in 1998, which at this point is over 10,000 in number

• Analog Charts - our historical research tool which identifies historical periods which look like the most recent period in history

• SeasonalEdge - a radar screen which identifies those markets with the strongest seasonal tendencies for today or any date

• EarningsEdge - a daily calendar of U.S. stocks scheduled to announce quarterly earnings today, and whether or not the stock has a tendency to rise or fall in the period leading up to and following historical announcement dates

• our amazing EventEdge research tool, which allows you to see what technical events, trend conditions, other market events, almanac events, and economic events are happening right now, and allows you to see how those events and conditions have affected the market in the past. EventEdge is a powerful online trader's assistant, which harnesses the power of LIM's Market Information Machine to ask history how an instrument has performed in conditions similar to those we are seeing today. For a full description and of the EventEdge tool, and how to use it to find historically significant trading edges, click here.

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We ask for the card and begin billing if you don't cancel. If you forget and get billed even though you do not want to subscribe, we just refund your money. We do this to prevent an inundation of people who are not seriously considering our service from requesting free trials. The other reason is that we do not currently have the sales staff to follow up on free trial leads. It takes up to two people to handle refunds in case people get accidentally billed, but it could take 50 people to follow up on free trials.

BOTTOM LINE: If you forget to cancel, and you get billed by accident even though you do not want the service, we will refund your money provided you were not accessing the site after the free trial period was over.

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First we identify an interesting market movement or event in the present. Then, we look back in history to see how many times the event in question has repeated itself. We then use two filtering criteria:

1: We check to see if the factor in question has occurred between ten and 20 times in the past. (Why 10-20? Well, we have found that number of occurrences to be sufficient to use history to predict future behavior.

2: Assuming we obtain between 10 and 20 occurrences, we then check to see if the market(s) in question moved up or down over a defined period of time in more than 70 percent of the occurrences. So, if we identify an event which has occurred 15 different times in the past and the market in question has gone up in 12 of the 15 occurrences we wind up with an 80 percent historical probability that the market will move higher.

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Our trading horizon for 80 percent of our ideas is three weeks or less. For volatile instruments like futures and currencies our outlook is most always fewer than two weeks. In the stock market, most ideas - again - are under two weeks in their outlook. However, to accommodate requests from Fidelity's top analysts we have stretched the horizon on some of our stock picks to between one and three months.

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The criteria for implementing our research into our model portfolio are managed by MarketHistory.com portfolio manager and President, Tony Kolton. Generally, if Tony finds that one of our ideas is coupled with a strong directional signal from the world of technical analysis, then Tony jumps into the market. This selection process is proof that our historical ideas work best when combined with the most basic decision making tools.

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For the basics of the technical events we look at any primer on technical analysis will be useful, but be warned that we don't subscribe to the conventional analysis of what these indicators mean. We let history be our guide to know how any particular trading instrument will respond to a given event. In a sense we throw out the book.

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We maintain a page of investing and other sites we like on our related links page.

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You can contact us using our Contact Form. We answer your questins promptly.

or, via snail mail, at: