| As you can see, there are 160 prior occurrences of the event, and the caption describes what it shown in the chart, that there is a very slight, and not very trade-able edge indicated by this historical view. Clearly, this event needs some refinement to see if there is some edge to it. To see how you can do this, scroll down will reveal the tools necessary to do so. See the screen shot below:
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| Immediately below the chart are the actual daily Open, High, Low Close prices for the instrument, along with the one-day change (Net) and the one-day percentage change (Net%) statistics.
If you scroll down you will see two columns of events. On the left are events and trend conditions related to the instrument you selected. On the right are "Almanac" events and price patterns of key indexes and commodities. There are five columns of events on each side which proceed in time from left to right. The right-most column, denoted as 't' is the current event date. The four columns to the left of column 't' are 't-4', which is four trading days before 't', 't-3' - three trading days before 't'. etc. The actual dates each column represents is included in each column header.
Wherever there is a check box, checked or not, it indicates an event that is true on that date for that instrument. In this example we can see that the Bonds were Up on Friday, closed on Monday (Memorial Day), Up very big on Tuesday (t-2), Up big on Wednesday (t-1) and Up on Thursday (t). In the next row down we see a box in column t-1 indicating that the bonds crossed above the upper bollinger band. This means that on the day before (t-2) the bonds did not close above the upper bollinger band, but did so on that date, t-1. If we look at the next row below that, the event is "Close above upper bollinger band". This event is true on the two most recent trading days, and we see that the box in column t for this event is checked.
Checking the check boxes will include that event in the historical query that produces the chart at the top of the page, and you will recall that this was the event we selected in the EventEdge scan chart above to drill down into to see what we would find.
To change the event definition used to generate the historical study shown in the chart, simply click on the check boxes. When you want to submit the query to the historical database, click the [Update Chart] button. After a few moments a new chart will be drawn showing the performance of the instrument in the 50 trading days following the new event you just defined.
In this case, it is interesting that there are two successive closes above the upper Bollinger band. This indicates very strong market conditions, and the common interpretations of Bollinger bands would say that the market is overbought and that the market will fall. We will test this hypothesis using the EventEdge. In order to do this I click with my mouse pointer on the t-1 "close above upper bollinger band" check box" and click the Update Chart button:
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