American Electric Power Company, Inc.: AEP - Lights Out   Wednesday, February 1, 2012
By Jay Pasch
 American Electric Power (AEP) closed at $39.56 on Tuesday, stabilizing with a small $0.10 gain of 0.25% with an Inside day after 3 consecutive days of declines. AEP is now down -6.0% off of January's high with more downside to come according to history.
 Q: What is the historical performance for AEP after the stock closes out the month of January with a bearish MACD indicator? A: According to the 24 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that AEP has shown a strong bearish edge that peaks 14 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bearish edge relative to the current event date (Tuesday, 31 January 2012) is Monday, 20 February 2012. AEP declines in 79% of the cases (19 of 24) by an average of -4.9% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 3 rallies is 0.8%. The overall return of the 24 cases is -3.7%, which, based on the close of AEP on the event date ($39.56), provides a target price of $38.1. To view and modify the event parameters defining this study,
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to launch the EventEdge® tool. Mr. Jay Pasch is a private futures and equities trader based in Minnesota. He may hold positions in the instruments mentioned in his trading ideas.
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| | Let variable values:
@ = AEP
Date Day t+12 t+13 t+14 t+15 t+16
01/31/1968 Wed -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.6 -5.6
01/30/1970 Fri -1.4 1.8 0.9 1.4 0.9
01/29/1971 Fri 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 -2.0 -2.9
01/31/1972 Mon -8.5 -7.7 -7.3 -8.1 -7.7
01/31/1974 Thu -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
01/31/1975 Fri -4.7 -5.4 -6.1 -7.4 -8.8
01/31/1977 Mon -6.4 -5.4 -5.4 -4.9 -5.9
01/31/1980 Thu -8.2 -7.5 -8.2 -9.6 -10.3
01/30/1981 Fri -7.2 -7.2 -7.2 -5.8 -5.8
01/31/1983 Mon -6.5 -7.1 -7.1 -7.7 -6.5
01/31/1985 Thu -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -2.9 -2.9
01/31/1990 Wed -2.0 -3.6 -3.6 -3.2 -3.2
01/31/1992 Fri -4.2 -3.9 -4.2 -4.2 -3.5
01/31/1997 Fri 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.8
01/30/1998 Fri -0.3 -0.8 0.0 -0.8 -1.1
01/29/1999 Fri -4.0 -2.0 -3.4 -1.3 -2.7
01/31/2000 Mon -8.4 -9.1 -10.6 -9.1 -10.4
01/31/2002 Thu 0.0 -0.4 -0.7 0.5 2.1
01/31/2003 Fri -12.0 -12.2 -8.4 -10.7 -10.0
01/31/2006 Tue -3.5 -2.5 -3.1 -2.4 -2.8
01/31/2008 Thu -0.2 -1.1 -2.9 -1.0 0.3
01/30/2009 Fri -4.9 -4.0 -6.0 -9.4 -5.6
01/29/2010 Fri -3.2 -3.3 -2.0 -2.9 -2.7
01/31/2011 Mon 0.3 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.8
01/31/2012 Tue NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg -3.7 -3.5 -3.7 -3.9 -3.9
AvgPos 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.1
AvgNeg -4.5 -4.2 -4.9 -4.9 -5.2
PctPos 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 20.8
PctNeg 83.3 87.5 79.2 83.3 79.2
Maximum 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.8 2.1
Minimum -12.0 -12.2 -10.6 -10.7 -10.4
StdDev 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.8 3.8
ZStat -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0
Variance 12.4 12.5 11.0 14.2 14.4
25 Occurrences | |
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