PHLX Gold & Silver Index (XAU) - Heads Up Bulls   Friday, January 20, 2012
By Jay PaschThe Philly Gold & Silver Index (XAU) continues to show relative weakness against other equity indexes as well as both the Silver and Gold futures contracts. The XAU index faded again on Thursday for the third time in four sessions, down 1.7% at 188.04.
Q: What has happened in the past when, during January, the XAU Index declines by more than 1%, but gold advances and silver gains by more than 1%? A: According to the 11 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that XAU has shown a strong bearish edge that peaks 2 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bearish edge relative to the current event date (Thursday, 19 January 2012) is Monday, 23 January 2012. XAU declines in 100% of the cases (11 of 11) by an average of -4.0% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the 11 cases is -4.0%, which, based on the close of XAU on the event date (188.04), provides a target price of 180.52. Mr. Jay Pasch is a private futures and equities trader based in Minnesota. He may hold positions in the instruments mentioned in his trading ideas.
Related Ideas:
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| | Let variable values:
@ = XAU
Date Day t+1 t+2 t+4 t+5 t+23
01/11/1988 Mon -0.7 -0.5 -1.7 -1.9 -14.7
01/22/1988 Fri -3.1 -3.5 -4.8 -9.4 -8.8
01/15/1991 Tue -1.7 -9.7 -8.2 -7.5 -10.3
01/30/1998 Fri 0.1 -5.5 1.3 1.6 -2.5
01/25/1999 Mon -4.2 -6.4 -4.0 -0.3 -8.1
01/24/2000 Mon -1.2 -3.9 -4.3 -2.8 -1.8
01/30/2003 Thu -1.6 -2.9 -2.7 -3.3 -10.4
01/12/2004 Mon -2.7 -6.7 -9.4 -7.2 -6.0
01/28/2004 Wed -2.3 -0.7 -0.4 -1.4 1.5
01/26/2005 Wed -0.5 -1.0 -0.9 -0.2 4.7
01/13/2010 Wed -0.9 -2.9 -6.0 -10.4 -8.4
01/19/2012 Thu NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg -1.7 -4.0 -3.7 -3.9 -5.9
AvgPos 0.1 NaN 1.3 1.6 3.1
AvgNeg -1.9 -4.0 -4.2 -4.4 -7.9
PctPos 9.1 0.0 9.1 9.1 18.2
PctNeg 90.9 100.0 90.9 90.9 81.8
Maximum 0.1 -0.5 1.3 1.6 4.7
Minimum -4.2 -9.7 -9.4 -10.4 -14.7
StdDev 1.3 2.9 3.3 4.1 5.8
ZStat -1.3 -1.4 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0
Variance 1.6 8.3 10.8 16.4 33.1
12 Occurrences | |
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XAU
