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eResearch Technology - Seasonal Booster Shot 
Friday, June 18, 2010
By Gibbons Burke
eResearch Technology (ERES3) has been rallying nicely since the $5.344 low in February, rising 63.4% to the 52-week high of $8.73 in early June. It has backed off a bit from that high, and closed on Thursday at $8.45 after a 0.5% gain on the day.
The stock has shown a strong seasonal tendency which may lead to higher 52-week highs yet...
Q: How has ERES performed in the past after the 17th day of June?
A: According to the 13 years of history for this stock, ERES has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 10 trading days after that date. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Thursday, 17 June 2010) is Thursday, 1 July 2010. ERES rallies in 92% of the cases (12 of 13) by an average of 13.0% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 1 decline is -7.4%. The overall return of the 13 cases is 11.5%, which, based on the close of ERES on the event date ($8.45), provides a target price of $9.42.
Click here4 to see this trading idea in EventEdge®. You may also research the seasonal tendency in our SeasonalEdge analysis tool by clicking here5.
Gibbons Burke6 is editor of MarketHistory.com.
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Let variable values:
@ = GII.ERES.NASDAQ
theEvent = IF
Date is 6/17/_
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+4 t+7 t+8 t+9 t+10
06/17/1997 Tue 8.5 0.0 6.1 6.1 6.1
06/17/1998 Wed 5.4 5.4 5.4 18.9 13.5
06/17/1999 Thu 0.0 0.0 -5.6 -8.3 -7.4
06/16/2000 Fri 6.0 16.7 31.0 33.3 32.1
06/15/2001 Fri 1.0 3.9 6.8 14.6 26.2
06/17/2002 Mon 5.7 8.5 13.5 16.1 16.2
06/17/2003 Tue 0.2 10.2 10.5 8.5 7.3
06/17/2004 Thu 10.4 13.7 14.0 16.7 17.8
06/17/2005 Fri 3.0 6.9 5.9 5.6 7.6
06/16/2006 Fri -0.2 -0.5 1.1 5.0 6.3
06/15/2007 Fri 1.8 2.5 3.5 7.1 6.7
06/17/2008 Tue 3.2 2.1 1.8 3.8 2.0
06/17/2009 Wed 17.5 17.0 15.1 13.1 14.4
06/17/2010 Thu NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 4.8 6.6 8.4 10.8 11.5
AvgPos 5.7 8.7 9.6 12.4 13.0
AvgNeg -0.2 -0.5 -5.6 -8.3 -7.4
PctPos 84.6 76.9 92.3 92.3 92.3
PctNeg 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7
Maximum 17.5 17.0 31.0 33.3 32.1
Minimum -0.2 -0.5 -5.6 -8.3 -7.4
StdDev 5.1 6.2 8.9 9.9 10.3
ZStat 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1
Variance 25.8 38.3 79.6 97.7 106.2
14 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=ERES
3 http://quote.morningstar.com/stock/s.aspx?t=ERES
4 http://admin.markethistory.com/events/chart.html?ticker=eres
5 http://www.markethistory.com/content/seasonal/exchange/edge.html?mt=GII.ERES.NASDAQ&t=ERES&d=2010-06-17&v=a
6 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=gibbons