© Copyright 2010-2012, MarketHistory.com
Unauthorized mirroring, photocopying, facsimile or any other
distribution of this copyrighted material is prohibited.
All rights reserved.
Waddell & Reed Financial, Inc. - Ready About 
Thursday, June 17, 2010
By Jay Pasch
Waddell & Reed Financial (WDR3) closed nearly unchanged with a $.07 gain at $25.57 on Wednesday for a Very Large five-day gain of 7.1%. Still down some -34% over the past six weeks, history suggests double-digit gains ahead according to today's 9-for-10 winner.
Q: What is the historical performance for WDR after the stock records a Very Large five-day gain for two consecutive days while trading below 200-day moving-average price?
A: According to the 10 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that WDR has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 38 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Wednesday, 16 June 2010) is Monday, 9 August 2010. WDR rallies in 90% of the cases (9 of 10) by an average of 12.1% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 1 decline is -6.2%. The overall return of the 10 cases is 10.3%, which, based on the close of WDR on the event date ($25.57), provides a target price of $28.20.
To view and modify the event parameters defining this study, click here4 to launch the EventEdge® tool.
Mr. Jay Pasch5 is a private futures and equities trader based in Minnesota. He may hold positions in the instruments mentioned in his trading ideas.
 |
Let variable values:
@ = GII.WDR.NYSE
theEvent = IF
2 values ago {
5 value percent_move of @ is more than
(30 day average of 5 value percent_move of @ +
(2 * 30 day std_dev of 5 value percent_move of @
)
) }
AND
1 value ago {
5 value percent_move of @ is more than
(30 day average of 5 value percent_move of @ +
(2 * 30 day std_dev of 5 value percent_move of @
)
) }
AND
2 values ago {
@ is less than 200 value average of @ }
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+33 t+35 t+36 t+37 t+38
10/26/1999 Tue 11.0 11.5 15.1 14.5 14.2
03/29/2001 Thu 7.3 12.4 13.1 18.9 15.9
04/12/2001 Thu 0.5 3.5 6.6 5.7 5.2
10/16/2002 Wed 14.9 9.6 11.3 5.3 8.9
03/17/2003 Mon 11.5 12.9 13.1 11.1 11.4
05/25/2004 Tue -4.5 -6.2 -6.9 -4.8 -6.2
08/17/2004 Tue 9.6 10.7 10.2 9.9 9.9
05/30/2005 Mon 1.6 2.8 3.5 3.2 4.5
07/26/2006 Wed 14.5 17.0 14.5 14.1 14.7
12/01/2008 Mon 18.5 23.5 32.1 29.9 24.2
06/16/2010 Wed NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 8.5 9.8 11.3 10.8 10.3
AvgPos 9.9 11.5 13.3 12.5 12.1
AvgNeg -4.5 -6.2 -6.9 -4.8 -6.2
PctPos 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0
PctNeg 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
Maximum 18.5 23.5 32.1 29.9 24.2
Minimum -4.5 -6.2 -6.9 -4.8 -6.2
StdDev 7.3 8.2 9.9 9.5 8.1
ZStat 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3
Variance 53.0 67.1 97.9 90.2 66.3
11 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=WDR
3 http://quote.morningstar.com/stock/s.aspx?t=WDR
4 http://www.markethistory.com/content/events/stocks/chart.html?ticker=WDR&events=UpBigVL5day2,UpBigVL5day1,BelowSMA2002
5 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=pasch