Stamps.com - Who Says Stamp Prices Never Go Down? | markethistory.com

Stamps.com has rallied for the last four trading days, and saw a 'big' 2.7% one-day gain on Monday followed by a 1.2% gain on Tuesday to close at 10.77 with a 6.6% gain over the last five trading days. However, the stock is entering a seasonally weak period, according to our seasonal analysis, so it might be time to take profits, or even go short.

A: According to the 10 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that STMP has shown a strong bearish edge that peaks 20 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bearish edge relative to the current event date (Tuesday, 15 June 2010) is Tuesday, 13 July 2010. STMP declines in 100% of the cases (10 of 10) by an average of -12.8% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the 10 cases is -12.8%, which, based on the close of STMP on the event date ($10.77), provides a target price of $9.39.

Click here to investigate this trading idea further in EventEdge®. You can also check it out in our SeasonalEdge analysis tool by clicking here.

Let variable values:
@	=	GII.STMP.NASDAQ
theEvent	=	IF
   Date is 6/15/_
THEN 1
ENDIF


      Date   Day            t+5           t+10           t+15           t+20

06/15/2000   Thu          -21.2          -24.7          -33.4          -35.8
06/15/2001   Fri            0.0           21.0           12.6           -4.2
06/14/2002   Fri            9.7            7.8           -2.2           -7.5
06/13/2003   Fri           -1.3           -6.6           -6.2           -4.5
06/15/2004   Tue          -11.3          -15.4          -26.6          -20.4
06/15/2005   Wed           -6.8          -16.3          -14.0          -11.4
06/15/2006   Thu            1.0           -1.3          -14.4          -26.4
06/15/2007   Fri           -2.3           -4.0           -0.6           -4.3
06/13/2008   Fri            0.5           -6.6          -13.2           -9.4
06/15/2009   Mon           -6.3           -4.3           -4.9           -4.1
06/15/2010   Tue            NaN            NaN            NaN            NaN

             Avg           -3.8           -5.0          -10.3          -12.8
          AvgPos            3.7           14.4           12.6            NaN
          AvgNeg           -8.2           -9.9          -12.8          -12.8
          PctPos           30.0           20.0           10.0            0.0
          PctNeg           60.0           80.0           90.0          100.0
         Maximum            9.7           21.0           12.6           -4.1
         Minimum          -21.2          -24.7          -33.4          -35.8
          StdDev            8.3           12.8           13.2           11.1
           ZStat           -0.5           -0.4           -0.8           -1.2
        Variance           69.3          164.5          174.5          122.6


11 Occurrences

XMIM Query Source

Stamps.com - Who Says Stamp Prices Never Go Down?

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