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Seacor Holdings - Hold 'Em 
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
By Gibbons Burke
After testing trendline support in a broad down-trending channel (see chart below), Seacor Holdings (CKH3) has been rallying strongly, gaining in four of the last five trading days and seeing a 'very big' 4.6% gain last Thursday contributing to a 'very large' 7.7% 5-day gain as of Monday's close.
As of the close on Fridayt of last week the stock had gained a 'large' 6.1% over the week, and Monday's 1.0% gain added to that. The stock closed on Monday at $72.79, still in a long-term down trend below the 200, 100, and 50-day averages, but positive in the shorter term, closing above the 5, 10 and 20 day averages.
Q: How has CKH performed in the past when it has seen a 'very large' five-day percentage gain after a 'large' five-day gain on the previous day, and the stock closes below the 200-day average price?
A: According to the 20 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that CKH has shown a somewhat bullish edge that peaks 14 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Monday, 14 June 2010) is Friday, 2 July 2010. CKH rallies in 85% of the cases (17 of 20) by an average of 8.2% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 3 declines is -3.2%. The overall return of the 20 cases is 6.5%, which, based on the close of CKH on the event date ($72.79), provides a target price of $77.52.
Click here4 to investigate this trading idea further in EventEdge®.
Gibbons Burke5 is editor of MarketHistory.com.
Related Ideas:
- Seacor Smit Inc - Continuing the Uptrend6 - May 10, 2006
- Seacor Smit Inc - Quick Rebound7 - November 11, 2005
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Let variable values:
@ = GII.CKH.NYSE
theEvent = IF
5 value percent_move of @ is more than
(30 day average of 5 value percent_move of @ +
(2 * 30 day std_dev of 5 value percent_move of @
)
)
AND
1 value ago {
5 value percent_move of @ is more than
(30 day average of 5 value percent_move of @ +
(1 * 30 day std_dev of 5 value percent_move of @
)
) }
AND
@ is less than 200 value average of @
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t-5 t+1 t+5 t+10 t+14
12/28/1993 Tue 12.5 0.0 2.2 3.3 4.4
02/15/1994 Tue 13.9 -1.1 2.2 4.4 -2.2
04/20/1994 Wed 4.6 0.0 -6.9 -10.0 3.1
05/13/1994 Fri 9.0 5.1 6.4 2.5 8.3
03/21/1995 Tue 6.2 -1.9 3.9 14.9 14.3
09/08/1998 Tue 14.3 -6.8 2.9 6.8 6.5
10/16/1998 Fri 27.9 3.0 13.9 15.9 30.6
03/04/1999 Thu 6.8 0.9 4.5 4.8 13.6
10/26/1999 Tue 2.6 -0.1 3.7 9.1 10.2
03/01/2000 Wed 7.9 3.8 6.9 1.3 5.1
07/23/2001 Mon 7.7 -3.4 0.8 0.8 -3.4
10/10/2001 Wed 13.8 -4.9 -6.5 -6.1 -3.9
12/04/2001 Tue 14.1 3.0 -3.5 6.5 7.7
07/30/2002 Tue 7.4 -2.6 -4.9 -2.6 2.8
09/27/2002 Fri 7.2 0.6 0.1 -3.7 4.5
04/28/2003 Mon 4.8 -0.5 1.9 6.5 6.1
08/22/2007 Wed 2.7 1.2 2.5 8.0 10.3
10/30/2008 Thu 12.4 3.8 1.1 7.5 0.8
03/18/2009 Wed 8.8 0.8 4.0 2.1 3.3
02/16/2010 Tue 4.7 -0.8 1.3 8.0 7.9
06/14/2010 Mon 7.7 NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 9.4 -0.0 1.8 4.0 6.5
AvgPos 9.4 2.5 3.6 6.4 8.2
AvgNeg NaN -2.5 -5.5 -5.6 -3.2
PctPos 100.0 45.0 80.0 80.0 85.0
PctNeg 0.0 45.0 20.0 20.0 15.0
Maximum 27.9 5.1 13.9 15.9 30.6
Minimum 2.6 -6.8 -6.9 -10.0 -3.9
StdDev 5.7 3.0 4.8 6.4 7.6
ZStat 1.7 -0.0 0.4 0.6 0.9
Variance 31.9 9.0 23.1 41.0 57.2
21 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=CKH
3 http://quote.morningstar.com/stock/s.aspx?t=CKH
4 http://www.markethistory.com/content/events/stocks/chart.html?ticker=CKH&events=UpBigVL5day0,UpBig5day1,BelowSMA2000
5 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=gibbons
6 http://www.markethistory.com/content/content.html/9383.html
7 http://www.markethistory.com/content/content.html/8659.html