The Traveler Companies - Poised for a Rally?   Friday, June 4, 2010
By Gibbons Burke
 Shares in this Dow component, The Traveler Companies (TRV) have hung onto the strong gains of last Thursday, gaining on this Wednesday by a 'big' 2.4%, and though the stock declined yesterday by -0.1%, the five-day rate of change is a 'very large' 3.6%. The stock closed on Thursday at $49.72, below the 200, 100, and 50-day averages, but above the 20, 10, and 5 day averages, so it is still in the grips of the bear's claws in the longer term trend picture, but is gathering strength in the shorter term picture. Q: How has TRV performed in the past when it has seen a 'very large' five-day percentage gain in the second quarter of the year, but the stock closes below its 200-day average price? A: According to the 9 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that TRV has shown a very strong bullish edge that peaks 31 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Thursday, 3 June 2010) is Friday, 16 July 2010. TRV rallies in 100% of the cases (9 of 9) by an average of 6.7% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the 9 cases is 6.7%, which, based on the close of TRV on the event date ($49.72), provides a target price of $53.05. Click here to check out earlier occurrences of this event using EventEdge®.
 Gibbons Burke is editor of MarketHistory.com.
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| | Let variable values:
@ = GII.TRV.NYSE
theEvent = IF
5 value percent_move of @ is more than
(30 day average of 5 value percent_move of @ +
(2 * 30 day std_dev of 5 value percent_move of @
)
)
AND
@ is less than 200 value average of @
AND
Date is second quarter
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t-5 t+5 t+10 t+20 t+31
04/27/1988 Wed 4.4 1.2 -1.8 0.6 8.5
06/24/1991 Mon 3.1 2.6 0.6 2.6 1.8
06/29/1994 Wed 4.2 0.6 0.0 4.6 9.2
04/23/1999 Fri 3.4 -5.6 8.6 14.6 12.1
05/07/1999 Fri 15.0 2.7 5.5 5.9 2.7
04/02/2001 Mon 9.4 -6.5 -3.5 2.3 9.0
04/27/2005 Wed 4.6 7.2 8.3 7.2 11.1
04/04/2006 Tue 3.9 -3.0 1.5 8.3 4.4
04/19/2006 Wed 4.6 1.8 6.6 3.7 1.9
06/03/2010 Thu 3.6 NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 5.6 0.1 2.9 5.5 6.7
AvgPos 5.6 2.7 5.2 5.5 6.7
AvgNeg NaN -5.0 -2.6 NaN NaN
PctPos 100.0 66.7 66.7 100.0 100.0
PctNeg 0.0 33.3 22.2 0.0 0.0
Maximum 15.0 7.2 8.6 14.6 12.1
Minimum 3.1 -6.5 -3.5 0.6 1.8
StdDev 3.7 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.1
ZStat 1.5 0.0 0.6 1.3 1.7
Variance 14.0 19.2 20.1 17.5 16.6
10 Occurrences | |
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