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Covance - Seasonal Bullishness 
Thursday, June 3, 2010
By Gibbons Burke
One of the few stocks in our SeasonalEdge report for June 3rd showing a bullish tendency to rally this time of year is Covance, which rallied on Wednesday along with the rest of the market, gaining 1.94% to close at $53.07. The stock has been beaten down and currently trades near lower trendline support in the $51-52 range (see chart below.) It's got a long way to go to recoup the losses sustained in its move down from the 52-week high of $63.53 set in mid-April of this year - it's now down -16.5% from that high.
Q: How has CVD performed in the past following the 3rd day of June?
A: According to the 13 years of history, CVD has shown a strong seasonally bullish edge that peaks 23 trading days after the 3rd of June. CVD rallies in 92% of the cases (12 of 13) by an average of 8.3% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 1 decline is -0.1%. The overall return of the 13 cases is 7.6%, which, based on the close of CVD on the event date (53.07), provides a target price of $57.10.
Click here3 to see this trading idea in SeasonalEdge.
Gibbons Burke4 is editor of MarketHistory.com.
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Let variable values:
@ = GII.CVD.NYSE
theEvent = IF
Date is 6/3/_
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+2 t+10 t+20 t+23
06/03/1997 Tue 3.4 7.4 1.0 7.4
06/03/1998 Wed 3.0 7.2 10.4 15.5
06/03/1999 Thu 3.1 -1.2 20.8 14.7
06/02/2000 Fri 0.0 -3.9 9.3 14.7
06/01/2001 Fri 4.8 4.6 25.1 18.8
06/03/2002 Mon 1.2 2.8 2.2 0.1
06/03/2003 Tue 3.2 -2.6 -3.2 -0.1
06/03/2004 Thu 3.7 5.0 6.6 3.7
06/03/2005 Fri 2.1 5.3 4.1 4.6
06/02/2006 Fri -2.6 -0.1 3.2 3.3
06/01/2007 Fri -1.0 2.8 3.4 6.6
06/03/2008 Tue 3.5 0.6 7.1 5.9
06/03/2009 Wed 0.0 0.0 7.6 4.0
Avg 1.9 2.2 7.5 7.6
AvgPos 3.1 4.0 8.4 8.3
AvgNeg -1.8 -2.0 -3.2 -0.1
PctPos 69.2 69.2 92.3 92.3
PctNeg 15.4 30.8 7.7 7.7
Maximum 4.8 7.4 25.1 18.8
Minimum -2.6 -3.9 -3.2 -0.1
StdDev 2.2 3.7 7.8 6.2
ZStat 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.2
Variance 4.7 13.4 60.9 38.8
13 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=CVD
3 http://www.markethistory.com/content/seasonal/exchange/edge.html?mt=GII.CVD.NYSE&t=CVD&d=2010-06-03&v=a
4 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=gibbons