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Heartland Express - Heading Downtown 
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
By Gibbons Burke
Heartland Express (HTLD3) shares are in the express elevator going down at the moment, having lost 12.0% from the 52-week high made in mid-April to Tuesday's close at $15.12, which caused the stock to cross below its 200-day average. The stock also crossed the 50% retracement between the 52-week high and the 52-week low, which might serve as a rally area for the stock. The stock closed down with a 'big' one-day percentage drop of -2.7% and the five-day rate of change is -3.4%.
Q: How has HTLD performed in the past after crossing below the 200-day average price in the second quarter of the year?
A: According to the 24 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that HTLD has shown a somewhat bullish edge that peaks 9 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Tuesday, 1 June 2010) is Monday, 14 June 2010. HTLD rallies in 79% of the cases (19 of 24) by an average of 6.3% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 5 declines is -1.7%. The overall return of the 24 cases is 4.6%, which, based on the close of HTLD on the event date ($15.12), provides a target price of $15.82.
Click here4 to see this trading idea in EventEdge®.
Gibbons Burke5 is editor of MarketHistory.com.
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Let variable values:
@ = GII.HTLD.NASDAQ
theEvent = IF
@ crosses below 200 value average of @
AND
Date is second quarter
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+1 t+3 t+5 t+9 t+18
04/05/1988 Tue 5.9 5.9 2.9 11.8 26.5
06/30/1994 Thu 0.0 -4.2 -0.8 2.5 11.0
04/10/1997 Thu 3.0 14.6 23.2 12.2 3.7
05/01/1997 Thu 3.6 1.8 3.6 7.8 4.2
05/21/1997 Wed -0.6 -1.2 0.6 7.5 2.0
06/16/1997 Mon 1.4 5.2 8.0 7.5 15.5
04/08/1998 Wed 7.8 4.9 7.8 1.5 -6.4
04/23/1998 Thu 3.9 0.8 3.4 -0.3 -4.4
04/04/2000 Tue -0.9 12.3 5.3 3.9 29.8
04/23/2002 Tue -2.3 5.6 11.1 12.3 19.0
04/03/2003 Thu 2.0 5.8 7.7 9.9 17.9
05/06/2004 Thu -2.9 -4.8 -4.3 -4.6 2.6
06/03/2004 Thu 3.1 7.5 7.6 8.8 13.2
06/03/2005 Fri -1.2 -7.6 -6.4 -2.1 -1.8
04/04/2007 Wed 1.1 0.9 3.4 3.7 9.6
06/07/2007 Thu 0.7 -0.6 1.9 1.0 4.4
06/22/2007 Fri 0.2 3.1 0.7 3.2 1.9
04/04/2008 Fri -0.1 -2.6 -2.8 -1.0 11.1
04/22/2008 Tue -2.1 4.9 6.9 7.9 10.6
06/17/2008 Tue 0.2 4.7 -0.5 2.1 1.4
04/07/2009 Tue 2.4 8.7 5.1 4.3 5.9
04/27/2009 Mon 0.1 2.3 4.5 8.2 -1.8
05/12/2009 Tue -5.0 -1.8 0.7 -0.6 4.2
06/16/2009 Tue 0.9 2.4 -0.6 2.9 2.3
06/01/2010 Tue NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 0.9 2.9 3.7 4.6 7.6
AvgPos 2.4 5.4 5.8 6.3 9.8
AvgNeg -1.9 -3.3 -2.6 -1.7 -3.6
PctPos 62.5 70.8 75.0 79.2 83.3
PctNeg 33.3 29.2 25.0 20.8 16.7
Maximum 7.8 14.6 23.2 12.3 29.8
Minimum -5.0 -7.6 -6.4 -4.6 -6.4
StdDev 2.8 5.2 5.9 4.7 9.2
ZStat 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8
Variance 8.0 27.5 35.3 22.4 84.5
25 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=HTLD
3 http://quote.morningstar.com/stock/s.aspx?t=HTLD
4 http://www.markethistory.com/content/events/stocks/chart.html?ticker=HTLD&events=CrossBelowSMA2000,quarter&date=2010-06-01
5 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=gibbons