© Copyright 2010-2012, MarketHistory.com
Unauthorized mirroring, photocopying, facsimile or any other
distribution of this copyrighted material is prohibited.
All rights reserved.
Home Shopping Network - I found a Bargain on TV! 
Friday, May 28, 2010
By Gibbons Burke
Home Shopping Network (HSNI3) shares rallied by a 'big' 8.1% on Thursday to close at $27.82, and, after gaining in four of the last five trading days it shows a 'very large' five-day percentage gain of 12.7%. History shows that this event has been a great bargain price to aquire shares.
Q: How has HSNI performed in the past when it has seen a 'very large' five-day percentage gain?
A: According to the 9 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that HSNI has shown a very strong bullish edge that peaks 45 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Thursday, 27 May 2010) is Thursday, 29 July 2010. HSNI rallies in 100% of the cases (9 of 9) by an average of 39.4% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the 9 cases is 39.4%, which, based on the close of HSNI on the event date ($27.82), provides a target price of $38.78.
Click here4 to see this trading idea in EventEdge®. Take a look at previous bar charts showing this event.
Gibbons Burke5 is editor of MarketHistory.com.
 |
Let variable values:
@ = GII.HSNI.NASDAQ
theEvent = IF
5 value percent_move of @ is more than
(30 day average of 5 value percent_move of @ +
(2 * 30 day std_dev of 5 value percent_move of @
)
)
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t-5 t+5 t+15 t+21 t+45
10/27/2008 Mon 29.3 1.5 -29.1 -29.6 19.4
12/12/2008 Fri 38.5 121.0 187.3 73.4 55.2
03/10/2009 Tue 26.4 -0.8 7.3 21.9 78.9
05/07/2009 Thu 21.6 -1.3 34.5 38.9 6.3
07/16/2009 Thu 20.1 3.9 12.7 9.3 38.0
08/12/2009 Wed 24.7 -4.2 -12.9 4.6 40.0
11/13/2009 Fri 15.3 7.4 9.4 3.6 9.0
02/16/2010 Tue 8.0 2.4 43.8 51.8 66.9
03/02/2010 Tue 13.6 23.7 33.7 29.7 40.8
05/27/2010 Thu 12.7 NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 21.0 17.1 31.9 22.6 39.4
AvgPos 21.0 26.7 47.0 29.2 39.4
AvgNeg NaN -2.1 -21.0 -29.6 NaN
PctPos 100.0 66.7 77.8 88.9 100.0
PctNeg 0.0 33.3 22.2 11.1 0.0
Maximum 38.5 121.0 187.3 73.4 78.9
Minimum 8.0 -4.2 -29.1 -29.6 6.3
StdDev 9.1 39.8 62.8 30.3 25.0
ZStat 2.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.6
Variance 82.6 1586.4 3938.1 916.4 623.7
10 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=HSNI
3 http://quote.morningstar.com/stock/s.aspx?t=hsni
4 http://www.markethistory.com/content/events/stocks/chart.html?ticker=HSNI&events=UpBigVL5day0&date=2010-05-27
5 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=gibbons