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Hasbro - Crosses Above the 50-day Average in May 
Thursday, May 27, 2010
By Gibbons Burke
Hasbro shares have been jumping around like many of their toys in the last couple of weeks, along with the rest of the markets. The day to day volatility has been extraordinary by any measure. Averages can smooth out the jiggles a bit to see where the trend is behind all the bouncing. Wednesday's gap higher caused shares to cross above the 50-day average, which has been a bullish sign in the past, but given the volatility lately, much caution is warranted.
HAS closed on Wednesday at $39.55 with a 1.6% gain on the day, but remains down -3.7% over the last five trading days. Now that the stock has crossed back above the 50-day average, it is in long-term bullish mode, closing above the 200-day and 100-day averages also.
Q: How has HAS performed after crossing above the 50-day average price in the month of May?
A: According to the 15 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that HAS has shown a somewhat bullish edge that peaks 11 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Wednesday, 26 May 2010) is Thursday, 10 June 2010. HAS rallies in 80% of the cases (12 of 15) by an average of 8.3% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 3 declines is -2.4%. The overall return of the 15 cases is 6.2%, which, based on the close of HAS on the event date ($39.55), provides a target price of $42.
Click Gibbons Burke3 is editor of MarketHistory.com.
Let variable values:
@ = GII.HAS.NYSE
theEvent = IF
@ crosses above 50 value average of @
AND
Date is May
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+5 t+8 t+11 t+15 t+21
05/22/1972 Mon -1.1 -2.8 -2.8 -7.7 -3.3
05/04/1977 Wed -1.5 8.8 5.9 2.9 8.8
05/02/1978 Tue 8.3 29.2 18.8 20.8 37.5
05/01/1979 Tue 2.5 12.5 2.5 10.0 65.0
05/05/1983 Thu 8.1 13.1 14.6 11.1 6.1
05/30/1984 Wed 9.2 5.1 6.6 27.8 30.4
05/09/1988 Mon -0.8 -2.5 -0.8 0.8 7.6
05/12/1989 Fri -1.3 4.0 10.7 14.1 12.1
05/11/1990 Fri 3.3 7.3 14.0 10.7 3.3
05/11/1995 Thu 1.9 3.8 3.1 4.6 0.4
05/14/1997 Wed 4.2 4.2 7.9 5.1 5.1
05/09/2000 Tue 10.2 7.0 6.6 2.3 0.8
05/02/2001 Wed -3.6 -1.3 7.9 10.4 12.6
05/13/2002 Mon -4.1 -3.7 -3.5 -6.2 -9.8
05/16/2005 Mon 2.9 0.6 0.8 1.5 1.6
05/26/2010 Wed NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 2.5 5.7 6.2 7.2 11.9
AvgPos 5.6 8.7 8.3 9.4 14.7
AvgNeg -2.1 -2.6 -2.4 -7.0 -6.5
PctPos 60.0 73.3 80.0 86.7 86.7
PctNeg 40.0 26.7 20.0 13.3 13.3
Maximum 10.2 29.2 18.8 27.8 65.0
Minimum -4.1 -3.7 -3.5 -7.7 -9.8
StdDev 4.7 8.4 6.5 9.4 19.0
ZStat 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6
Variance 21.9 69.8 42.3 88.0 361.7
16 Occurrences Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=HAS
3 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=gibbons