Amedesys - Buy the Dip   Monday, May 17, 2010
By Gibbons Burke
 Amedesys (AMED) closed last week at $50.09 with a 'large' five-day decline of -7.3%, and on the last two days of the week closed below the lower Bollinger band after gapping down significantly on Thursday, and on Friday declined to a 13-week low, testing the $50 level which it visited earlier this month. If history is a guide, this could be the makings of a double bottom pattern.
From a trend perspective, the stock closed below all the averages we track except the 200-day, so it is in, mostly, bearish mode. The stock price tagged the 200-day average at the low - we'll see if it holds. Q: How has AMED performed in the past after closing two successive days below the lower Bollinger band? A: According to the 10 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that AMED has shown a very strong bullish edge that peaks 10 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Friday, 14 May 2010) is Friday, 28 May 2010. AMED rallies in 90% of the cases (9 of 10) by an average of 8.5% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 1 decline is -0.2%. The overall return of the 10 cases is 7.6%, which, based on the close of AMED on the event date ($50.09), provides a target price of $53.90. Click here to bring this trading idea up in EventEdge®
Click here to see a technical chart of AMED, with the 200-day average. Gibbons Burke is editor of MarketHistory.com.
Related Ideas:
 |
| | Let variable values:
@ = GII.AMED.NASDAQ
theEvent = IF
@ is less than bollinger_low ( @, 20 units, 2 )
AND
1 value ago {
@ is less than bollinger_low ( @, 20 units, 2 ) }
AND
@ is more than 200 value average of @
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+7 t+8 t+10 t+11 t+42
11/22/2000 Wed 17.6 14.8 3.7 1.9 33.3
01/10/2002 Thu 2.3 6.2 6.2 6.6 22.2
04/11/2002 Thu 12.6 12.6 9.9 10.2 21.4
07/23/2002 Tue 14.0 5.2 7.6 8.4 -13.4
01/05/2005 Wed -2.9 -1.0 -0.2 -0.7 13.6
10/10/2005 Mon 10.3 8.9 11.8 11.1 33.1
11/28/2006 Tue 7.7 12.8 12.4 12.1 11.7
10/16/2007 Tue -1.7 -1.8 15.3 12.8 18.0
06/09/2008 Mon 6.3 7.4 4.3 0.9 29.9
08/13/2008 Wed 8.2 4.8 5.1 4.0 -1.6
05/14/2010 Fri NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 7.4 7.0 7.6 6.7 16.8
AvgPos 9.9 9.1 8.5 7.5 22.9
AvgNeg -2.3 -1.4 -0.2 -0.7 -7.5
PctPos 80.0 80.0 90.0 90.0 80.0
PctNeg 20.0 20.0 10.0 10.0 20.0
Maximum 17.6 14.8 15.3 12.8 33.3
Minimum -2.9 -1.8 -0.2 -0.7 -13.4
StdDev 6.7 5.6 4.7 4.9 15.1
ZStat 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.1
Variance 44.3 31.1 22.1 24.4 227.5
11 Occurrences | |
No comments at this time. |
