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Reliance Steel - Reliable Signal 
RSTuesday, March 30, 2010
By Gibbons Burke
Reliance Steel (RS2), which is seasonally strong this time of year3, rallied by a 'very big' 4.8% on Monday, lofting the stock to a new 52-week high, and convincingly above the $50 price level to close at $50.46. The stock closed above the upper Bollinger band as well, a mark of the strength of the bullish impulse.
Q: How has RS performed in the past when it has seen a 'very big' one-day percentage gain which closes above the upper Bollinger band and closes above the 200-day average price?
A: According to the 26 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that RS has shown a somewhat bullish edge that peaks 28 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Monday, 29 March 2010) is Thursday, 6 May 2010. RS rallies in 81% of the cases (21 of 26) by an average of 11.8% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 4 declines is -7.6%. The overall return of the 26 cases is 8.4%, which, based on the close of RS on the event date ($50.46), provides a target price of $54.70.
Click here4 to see this trading idea in EventEdge®. There are several other Nitro event scan combinations5 showing bullish tendencies for RS after similar events in the past.
Gibbons Burke6 is editor of MarketHistory.com.
Related Ideas:
- Reliance Steel - Reliable Signal7 - January 27, 2010
 |
Let variable values:
@ = GII.RS.NYSE
theEvent = IF
1 value percent_move of @ is more than
(30 day average of 1 value percent_move of @ +
(2 * 30 day std_dev of 1 value percent_move of @
)
)
AND
@ is more than bollinger_high ( @, 20 units, 2 )
AND
@ is more than 200 value average of @
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t t+5 t+10 t+16 t+28
06/30/1995 Fri 5.3 2.5 2.5 3.4 7.6
08/23/1995 Wed 3.6 4.9 9.2 9.9 3.5
11/21/1995 Tue 3.5 2.1 5.5 8.2 9.6
02/23/1996 Fri 9.8 5.0 2.2 6.1 3.9
04/25/1996 Thu 5.7 2.3 8.1 15.4 37.6
09/30/1996 Mon 6.5 11.5 10.0 14.0 3.2
05/13/1997 Tue 3.8 1.4 3.3 8.3 11.2
07/10/1997 Thu 6.3 -2.7 -0.9 0.7 9.8
12/03/1997 Wed 4.2 -1.3 -1.7 2.1 4.2
03/24/1998 Tue 3.4 5.3 3.8 9.9 8.7
04/15/1999 Thu 9.9 10.7 16.8 20.9 22.1
07/11/2000 Tue 11.1 -4.4 -6.9 -7.5 -5.6
10/31/2000 Tue 6.1 -5.8 -1.1 0.5 9.5
12/05/2000 Tue 6.2 -2.9 -9.7 -4.1 0.0
08/01/2001 Wed 8.4 0.4 1.8 -0.6 -9.6
03/06/2002 Wed 3.7 -4.0 -1.2 1.4 13.8
04/10/2002 Wed 3.3 4.1 2.7 8.8 10.1
10/16/2003 Thu 4.8 3.7 12.5 16.5 19.6
02/17/2005 Thu 11.9 6.7 9.1 1.3 -7.8
07/21/2005 Thu 7.7 5.9 8.3 11.0 7.9
10/24/2005 Mon 5.4 3.5 9.8 9.9 19.8
01/09/2006 Mon 4.9 -0.7 16.4 18.4 25.2
03/29/2006 Wed 6.0 -0.1 -1.9 -0.9 3.9
04/19/2007 Thu 9.8 6.2 7.9 9.5 6.2
02/25/2008 Mon 6.3 -1.3 -5.6 3.2 10.4
06/09/2009 Tue 10.7 -7.0 -11.8 -10.3 -7.4
03/29/2010 Mon 4.8 NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 6.4 1.8 3.4 6.0 8.4
AvgPos 6.4 4.8 7.6 8.5 11.8
AvgNeg NaN -3.0 -4.5 -4.7 -7.6
PctPos 100.0 61.5 65.4 80.8 80.8
PctNeg 0.0 38.5 34.6 19.2 15.4
Maximum 11.9 11.5 16.8 20.9 37.6
Minimum 3.3 -7.0 -11.8 -10.3 -9.6
StdDev 2.6 4.7 7.4 7.8 10.7
ZStat 2.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8
Variance 6.8 22.4 54.5 60.4 113.6
27 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://quote.morningstar.com/stock/s.aspx?t=RS
3 http://www.markethistory.com/content/seasonal/edge.html?d=2010-03-29&mt=GII.RS.NYSE&t=RS
4 http://www.markethistory.com/content/events/stocks/chart.html?ticker=RS&events=UpXL0,CloseAboveUpperBoll0,AboveSMA2000&date=2010-03-29
5 http://www.markethistory.com/content/nitro/stocks/
6 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=gibbons
7 http://www.markethistory.com/content/content.html/16701.html