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Service Corporation International - At Your Service 
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
By Gibbons Burke
Service Corporation International (SCI3 shares started the week with a 'very big' one-day gain of 4.8%, opening at the absolute low price of the day and closing at the high, a new 20-day high price, at $8.45. The stock is in full-on bullish mode, closing above all the averages we track in our EventEdge® interactive research tool.
Q: How have SCI shares performed in the past when they have seen a 'very big' one day percentage gain on a Monday while in an uptrend, closing above the 200-day average?
A: According to the 24 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that SCI has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 38 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Monday, 1 March 2010) is Thursday, 22 April 2010. SCI rallies in 79% of the cases (19 of 24) by an average of 13.5% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 2 declines is -1.7%. The overall return of the 24 cases is 10.6%, which, based on the close of SCI on the event date ($8.45), provides a target price of $9.35.
Click here4 to investigate this trading idea further using EventEdge®.
The stock is very close to breaking through to a new 52-week high at $8.49.
Gibbons Burke5 is editor of MarketHistory.com.
 |
Let variable values:
@ = GII.SCI.NYSE
theEvent = IF
1 value percent_move of @ is more than
(30 day average of 1 value percent_move of @ +
(2 * 30 day std_dev of 1 value percent_move of @
)
)
AND
@ is more than 200 value average of @
AND
Date is Monday
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t t+5 t+15 t+25 t+38
01/24/1977 Mon 7.0 -4.3 -6.5 -2.2 21.7
05/16/1977 Mon 4.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 3.8
01/09/1978 Mon 31.5 14.1 19.7 18.3 16.9
04/02/1979 Mon 4.5 2.9 14.3 12.9 10.0
08/06/1979 Mon 7.5 0.0 2.8 2.8 11.1
06/02/1980 Mon 7.2 9.5 13.5 21.6 32.4
08/23/1982 Mon 6.3 0.5 10.0 16.8 31.4
04/11/1983 Mon 5.1 3.2 8.8 9.7 21.4
10/14/1985 Mon 4.5 -0.6 0.3 10.0 18.7
02/03/1986 Mon 6.2 6.7 6.3 12.2 2.9
08/27/1990 Mon 5.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 0.0
10/15/1990 Mon 4.8 0.0 5.9 14.5 19.1
11/12/1990 Mon 6.0 -1.1 0.6 4.5 0.0
01/04/1993 Mon 2.1 -1.3 0.7 0.0 0.0
01/25/1993 Mon 3.4 -1.3 0.0 1.3 10.7
11/06/1995 Mon 3.0 6.8 5.5 3.5 8.0
01/15/1996 Mon 4.6 -1.5 0.9 5.9 10.6
05/13/1996 Mon 3.3 1.6 6.2 5.5 4.3
09/22/1997 Mon 4.8 -3.1 -1.0 -8.8 4.8
03/15/2004 Mon 7.6 3.5 5.5 4.4 4.8
10/31/2005 Mon 6.6 2.5 -0.6 -2.6 -1.4
04/03/2006 Mon 9.0 -5.1 -6.0 -2.9 -1.9
11/20/2006 Mon 3.0 -0.1 6.1 4.4 9.6
01/29/2007 Mon 2.7 1.0 11.4 11.8 14.4
03/01/2010 Mon 4.8 NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 6.2 1.5 4.4 6.0 10.6
AvgPos 6.2 4.5 6.7 9.0 13.5
AvgNeg NaN -1.9 -2.9 -3.4 -1.7
PctPos 100.0 50.0 75.0 75.0 79.2
PctNeg 0.0 41.7 20.8 20.8 8.3
Maximum 31.5 14.1 19.7 21.6 32.4
Minimum 2.1 -5.1 -6.5 -8.8 -1.9
StdDev 5.5 4.3 6.3 7.6 9.8
ZStat 1.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1
Variance 30.8 18.9 40.1 57.3 95.5
25 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=SCI
3 http://quote.morningstar.com/stock/s.aspx?t=SCI
4 http://admin.markethistory.com/events/stocks/chart.html?ticker=SCI&events=UpXL0,AboveSMA2000,weekday&date=2010-03-01
5 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=gibbons