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Disney - Shares are "Up" 
Thursday, February 4, 2010
By Gibbons Burke
Disney (DIS3) shares have broken from a recent down trend and rallied, perhaps in part, in reaction to the news that the Pixar animated film "Up" was nominated for an Academy Award for Best Picture4. The stock saw a 'big' 1.6% gain on Tuesday, and 'very big' 2.6% on Wednesday, closing at $30.75. Over the last five trading days the stock has gained a 'very large' 4.9% and closed above the 200, 100, 20, 10 and 5-day averages.
Q: How have DIS shares performed in the past when they've seen a 'very big' one day gain in the first quarter of the year and close above the 200-day average price?
A: According to the 45 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that DIS has shown a somewhat bullish edge that peaks 47 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Wednesday, 3 February 2010) is Friday, 9 April 2010. DIS rallies in 82% of the cases (37 of 45) by an average of 11.7% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 8 declines is -4.5%. The overall return of the 45 cases is 8.8%, which, based on the close of DIS on the event date ($30.75), provides a target price of $33.46.
Click here5 to research this idea further in EventEdge®.
Gibbons Burke6 is editor of MarketHistory.com.
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Let variable values:
@ = GII.DIS.NYSE
theEvent = IF
Date is first quarter
AND
1 value percent_move of @ is more than
(30 day average of 1 value percent_move of @ +
(2 * 30 day std_dev of 1 value percent_move of @
)
)
AND
@ is more than 200 value average of @
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t t+10 t+20 t+30 t+47
01/23/1969 Thu 7.3 -1.5 -13.0 -11.1 -9.5
03/27/1969 Thu 3.6 6.0 0.3 0.5 -0.3
01/06/1971 Wed 4.9 2.4 12.2 17.1 37.3
03/01/1971 Mon 4.8 9.1 12.8 10.3 25.8
01/27/1972 Thu 5.6 1.0 6.8 -4.0 6.4
03/27/1972 Mon 3.9 -0.9 3.0 5.2 16.0
01/02/1976 Fri 4.3 5.3 14.4 15.4 15.9
03/23/1976 Tue 3.4 2.9 -3.1 -10.6 -11.0
02/12/1980 Tue 3.2 -3.1 -3.9 -6.4 -5.6
03/28/1980 Fri 4.5 2.6 7.1 9.1 12.5
02/03/1981 Tue 3.2 9.0 12.3 9.9 15.3
03/25/1981 Wed 3.3 -5.3 -8.1 -12.4 1.0
01/19/1983 Wed 6.7 2.7 2.7 18.8 17.5
01/10/1985 Thu 2.4 10.7 19.6 21.4 26.8
01/30/1985 Wed 3.7 4.3 6.0 4.1 8.2
02/14/1985 Thu 4.1 -4.1 -3.8 -1.3 -0.9
03/19/1985 Tue 3.6 -3.4 0.3 -6.3 3.9
01/13/1986 Mon 4.8 -1.5 2.8 9.2 17.9
03/26/1986 Wed 5.0 10.1 31.8 23.3 30.1
01/02/1987 Fri 4.1 11.4 25.9 30.4 35.1
01/04/1989 Wed 2.5 2.4 10.9 10.0 13.9
01/24/1989 Tue 2.5 5.6 3.5 6.5 11.9
02/07/1989 Tue 3.1 -2.0 0.8 1.5 8.1
01/30/1991 Wed 5.2 12.5 14.1 14.5 8.4
01/09/1992 Thu 4.5 2.1 9.8 19.4 17.8
01/28/1992 Tue 6.8 2.7 10.1 5.0 11.9
01/26/1993 Tue 6.3 0.5 -3.5 -2.4 -4.9
01/04/1994 Tue 3.5 5.0 5.6 4.8 5.3
01/27/1995 Fri 6.3 5.0 6.0 8.5 8.7
03/06/1995 Mon 4.2 -1.8 -2.5 -2.7 -3.6
01/02/1996 Tue 3.4 -1.4 4.5 4.5 7.8
01/30/1996 Tue 3.0 0.0 3.5 7.9 1.2
01/20/1998 Tue 3.4 8.7 15.6 7.5 7.9
03/16/1998 Mon 3.4 -3.7 3.2 12.7 5.8
01/11/1999 Mon 8.3 -2.0 -5.0 -0.5 -0.5
01/04/2000 Tue 6.3 9.4 17.3 16.3 10.0
01/25/2000 Tue 12.6 0.2 -9.0 -6.8 10.0
03/20/2000 Mon 7.1 6.0 -1.7 7.8 1.0
03/21/2003 Fri 9.3 -6.9 -1.5 -1.3 2.9
01/29/2004 Thu 3.3 14.5 8.5 6.7 8.8
01/12/2005 Wed 1.9 2.1 5.9 0.6 0.2
01/19/2006 Thu 4.1 -4.3 3.1 7.5 3.2
02/07/2006 Tue 7.0 2.8 5.1 4.1 3.6
03/29/2006 Wed 2.8 0.2 -0.4 7.0 9.6
02/28/2007 Wed 3.5 -1.5 -0.1 1.2 5.3
02/03/2010 Wed 2.6 NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 4.6 2.5 5.1 5.8 8.8
AvgPos 4.6 5.4 8.9 10.0 11.7
AvgNeg NaN -2.9 -4.3 -5.5 -4.5
PctPos 100.0 64.4 71.1 73.3 82.2
PctNeg 0.0 33.3 28.9 26.7 17.8
Maximum 12.6 14.5 31.8 30.4 37.3
Minimum 1.9 -6.9 -13.0 -12.4 -11.0
StdDev 2.1 5.2 8.8 9.4 10.6
ZStat 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8
Variance 4.3 26.9 78.3 88.3 112.9
46 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=DIS
3 http://quote.morningstar.com/stock/s.aspx?t=dis
4 http://new.whtc.com/news/articles/2010/feb/03/up-a-favorite-in-quality-oscar-race-for-animation/
5 http://www.markethistory.com/content/events/stocks/chart.html?ticker=DIS&events=quarter,UpXL0,AboveSMA2000
6 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=gibbons