Amex Biotechnology Index - Strong Medicine   Wednesday, February 3, 2010
By Jay Pasch
 The Amex Biotech Index (BTK) reversed last week's languid performance by setting a 52-week high on Tuesday, shooting up 25.69-points for a Very Big gain of 2.6%, ending the day with a close over the 1,000 round at 1002.27. What's next for this drug Kingpin? Given yesterday's strong performance, history favors the bulls, according to past occurrences of this sort of move. Q: What is the historical performance for the Amex Biotechnology Index after the index closes up Very Big on a day which crosses to a 52-week high? A: According to the 11 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that BTK has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 10 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Tuesday, 2 February 2010) is Tuesday, 16 February 2010. BTK rallies in 100% of the cases (11 of 11) by an average of 6.2% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the 11 cases is 6.2%, which, based on the close of BTK on the event date (1002.27), provides a target price of 1064.41. Consider using our EventEdge product to review this study, as well as to search for other trading ideas using the BTK Index's current components:
AFFX,
ALXN,
AMGN,
AMLN,
BIIB,
CELG,
CEPH,
CRA,
GENZ,
GILD,
HGSI>,
ILMN,
ITMN,
LIFE,
MIL,
MYGN,
NKTR,
OSIP,
SQNM,
VRTX. Mr. Jay Pasch is a private futures and equities trader based in Minnesota. He may hold positions in the instruments mentioned in his trading ideas.
 |
| | Let variable values:
@ = BTK
theEvent = IF
1 value percent_move of @ is more than
(30 day average of 1 value percent_move of @ +
(2 * 30 day std_dev of 1 value percent_move of @
)
)
AND
high of @ crosses above 52 week highest of high of @ 1 value ago
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+7 t+8 t+10 t+11 t+16
12/21/1995 Thu 10.5 8.0 9.1 5.2 4.9
12/31/1998 Thu 0.3 2.3 5.1 3.3 1.8
12/02/1999 Thu 0.7 0.7 2.9 2.8 26.6
12/21/1999 Tue 17.2 18.5 9.1 11.7 25.6
01/07/2000 Fri 11.6 16.0 13.9 13.3 9.4
02/16/2000 Wed 9.3 15.7 17.7 25.2 13.6
05/27/2003 Tue 7.5 5.8 2.3 5.5 1.9
01/16/2004 Fri -1.1 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.4
07/20/2005 Wed -2.2 -1.1 0.3 -2.1 -2.7
04/12/2007 Thu 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.2 3.4
07/31/2008 Thu 0.6 1.0 2.6 2.2 -1.4
02/02/2010 Tue NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 5.3 6.6 6.2 6.7 7.8
AvgPos 6.9 7.3 6.2 7.5 10.0
AvgNeg -1.7 -1.1 NaN -2.1 -2.0
PctPos 81.8 90.9 100.0 90.9 81.8
PctNeg 18.2 9.1 0.0 9.1 18.2
Maximum 17.2 18.5 17.7 25.2 26.6
Minimum -2.2 -1.1 0.3 -2.1 -2.7
StdDev 6.3 7.0 5.6 7.5 10.2
ZStat 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8
Variance 39.7 49.4 31.1 56.9 103.1
12 Occurrences | |
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BTK