Baidu - Google says Good-baidu China?   Thursday, January 14, 2010
By Gibbons Burke
 Chinese search giant Baidu shares (BIDU) rallied strongly in a gap move to the upside in the wake of the news that Google would be suspending service to the nation in the wake of black-ops hackers targeting Chinese dissidents. The stock gained an 'extra big' 13.7% in Wednesday's trading, after dropping a 'very big' 3.5% on Tuesday. It closed on Wednesday at $439.48 above the upper Bollinger band, making a new 20-day high and closing with a very large five-day gain of 6.5%. Volume on the day was an 'extra high' 12.1 million shares. The stock stopped just short of making a new 200-day high. Q: How have BIDU shares performed in the past when they have seen 'extra high' volume when the shares closed above the 200-day average price? A: According to the 11 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that BIDU has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 41 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Wednesday, 13 January 2010) is Thursday, 11 March 2010. BIDU rallies in 91% of the cases (10 of 11) by an average of 22.5% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 1 decline is -6.5%. The overall return of the 11 cases is 19.9%, which, based on the close of BIDU on the event date ($439.48), provides a target price of $526.94. Click here to see this trading idea in EventEdge®. In particular, check out this other historical edge based on the 'very large' five-day gain. Gibbons Burke is editor of MarketHistory.com.
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| | Let variable values:
@ = GII.BIDU.NASDAQ
theEvent = IF
volume of @ is more than exponential_average ( exponential_average ( volume
of @ 1 value ago, 0.33333 ), 0.064516129 ) +
(8 * 30 day std_dev of exponential_average ( volume of @ 1 value ago,
0.33333 )
)
AND
@ is more than 200 value average of @
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+5 t+10 t+20 t+30 t+41
07/27/2006 Thu 1.0 -2.5 5.3 9.8 23.7
10/30/2006 Mon -7.7 7.6 13.1 27.1 18.8
02/15/2007 Thu 3.9 -3.8 -9.8 -9.1 -6.5
04/26/2007 Thu 14.6 14.2 17.3 25.3 40.9
07/02/2007 Mon 9.4 13.9 8.4 1.8 10.8
09/18/2007 Tue 11.6 19.3 14.4 38.0 28.0
10/11/2007 Thu 3.6 8.3 15.9 0.0 28.7
04/02/2008 Wed 2.6 12.9 29.9 28.3 22.6
04/28/2009 Tue 12.9 9.0 13.5 34.9 32.5
07/24/2009 Fri -2.8 -3.1 -3.7 -4.1 10.7
10/27/2009 Tue -0.2 11.6 13.5 11.2 8.4
01/13/2010 Wed NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 4.5 7.9 10.7 14.8 19.9
AvgPos 7.5 12.1 14.6 19.6 22.5
AvgNeg -3.5 -3.1 -6.7 -6.6 -6.5
PctPos 72.7 72.7 81.8 81.8 90.9
PctNeg 27.3 27.3 18.2 18.2 9.1
Maximum 14.6 19.3 29.9 38.0 40.9
Minimum -7.7 -3.8 -9.8 -9.1 -6.5
StdDev 7.0 7.8 10.7 16.5 13.3
ZStat 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.5
Variance 48.6 61.1 113.6 273.8 176.1
12 Occurrences | |
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