After crossing below and back above the 100-day average in the last two days of October, JNJ shares did it again this week, crossing below last Friday to fall to a 13-week low ($58.78), but recovering on Wednesday and Thursday, where it closed at $59.98 with a gain of 0.8%, which followed Wednesday's 'big' gain of 1.0%. So, the stock remains above the 200-day average, and just crossed above the 100-day average, so bullish momentum is gathering. Will it continue? History suggests it might...

Q: How has JNJ performed in the past after crossing above the 100-day average price in the month of November?

A: According to the 47 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that JNJ has shown a somewhat bullish edge that peaks 22 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Thursday, 5 November 2009) is Tuesday, 8 December 2009. JNJ rallies in 77% of the cases (36 of 47) by an average of 5.5% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 11 declines is -2.0%. The overall return of the 47 cases is 3.7%, which, based on the close of JNJ on the event date ($59.98), provides a target price of $62.20.

JNJ has seen a much earlier recovery from the March low at $45.48 - it reached the $60 level in July, but then has been range bound around that level, oscillating between $59 and $62. Likely this "holding pattern" in JNJ's price is related to the uncertainty regarding a government takeover of the U.S. health care economy. The projection in this article would bring the stock back to the top of the range, where there is a decent sized gap to fill on the chart. Click here³ to load this event combination into EventEdge® for further analysis.

Let variable values:
@	=	GII.JNJ.NYSE
theEvent	=	IF
   @ crosses above 100 value average of @
AND
  Date is fourth quarter
THEN 1
ENDIF


      Date   Day            t+5           t+10           t+15           t+23           t+30

11/14/1968   Thu            7.7            7.1           11.5           10.2           13.7
11/29/1971   Mon            4.9            7.4            7.4            7.4            6.5
10/03/1972   Tue            0.0           -0.6           -1.1            4.4            1.9
10/24/1972   Tue            4.7            5.5            3.0           -0.8            3.7
11/14/1972   Tue           -4.1           -4.9           -0.8           -3.1            1.4
12/01/1972   Fri            2.3            1.7            0.9            2.0            0.0
12/21/1972   Thu            2.4            1.8            0.0            2.6           -0.4
10/05/1973   Fri            1.7            2.6            6.0            5.2            3.4
11/28/1973   Wed           -7.4           -4.2           -6.8           -5.5          -15.9
10/23/1975   Thu            0.8            2.0            2.0            5.0           -2.0
10/26/1977   Wed           -1.4           -0.3            2.4            0.9            0.9
11/09/1977   Wed            2.8            3.1            4.7            2.3            4.2
11/28/1979   Wed            5.5            4.8            7.9            5.5            8.8
10/30/1980   Thu            0.3            5.1           11.8           12.0           12.1
10/01/1981   Thu            3.7            1.5            8.5           10.0            4.4
10/06/1982   Wed            0.6            3.3            1.2           11.1           10.8
10/26/1982   Tue            4.7           10.0            6.5            5.9           13.9
10/04/1983   Tue            1.6           -1.6           -1.9           -4.0           -4.6
10/11/1984   Thu            4.7            0.8            3.9            6.7           13.8
10/17/1985   Thu           -1.1            1.1            3.5            7.3            7.3
10/15/1986   Wed            1.5            0.9            3.1           -1.1            1.6
11/14/1986   Fri            0.4           -1.8            2.7           -1.1           -3.8
12/02/1986   Tue            0.7            0.0           -5.4           -0.5            2.1
11/18/1988   Fri            0.9            2.7            3.0            2.0            2.4
10/16/1989   Mon            1.4           -0.9           -1.6            2.1            3.5
10/01/1990   Mon            0.9           -0.8            3.6           -0.2            1.3
10/18/1990   Thu            1.1           -1.7           -2.8           -1.3            4.3
11/02/1990   Fri           -1.7           -1.5           -1.9            6.0            5.6
11/28/1990   Wed            5.2            6.5            6.9            4.5            1.3
10/16/1991   Wed            6.3            7.5            8.2            9.2            8.0
10/12/1992   Mon            1.3            3.1            5.5            4.9            4.4
11/06/1992   Fri            1.5            2.8            2.5            4.8            8.7
10/13/1993   Wed            4.7            3.4            6.2            8.4           11.2
11/05/1996   Tue            1.8            3.2            7.2            4.8           -1.8
12/30/1996   Mon           -0.7            0.2            4.6           13.0           17.4
10/07/1997   Tue           -1.7           -2.7           -8.9           -2.7            2.4
11/05/1997   Wed           -3.0            4.9            4.2            8.0           11.0
12/15/1998   Tue           -4.6            4.0            3.0            0.3            5.4
10/08/1999   Fri           -5.5            6.1            6.1            4.3            6.5
10/10/2000   Tue            2.6           -3.1           -2.6           -0.2            3.3
11/15/2000   Wed            1.6            5.3            2.2            4.4           10.6
12/07/2001   Fri           -0.6            5.4            4.3            2.8            3.8
10/01/2002   Tue            3.9            5.8            6.3            4.1            6.6
12/09/2002   Mon            0.0           -1.9           -3.3            0.9           -1.4
11/14/2003   Fri           -2.4           -5.0           -4.4           -4.1           -1.4
12/22/2003   Mon            1.8            2.5            3.0            5.5            8.0
10/12/2004   Tue           -0.4            0.7            2.1            7.4            6.6
11/05/2009   Thu            NaN            NaN            NaN            NaN            NaN

             Avg            1.1            2.0            2.7            3.6            4.5
          AvgPos            2.6            3.8            4.9            5.6            6.4
          AvgNeg           -2.7           -2.2           -3.5           -2.1           -3.9
          PctPos           70.2           68.1           72.3           74.5           80.9
          PctNeg           27.7           29.8           25.5           25.5           17.0
         Maximum            7.7           10.0           11.8           13.0           17.4
         Minimum           -7.4           -5.0           -8.9           -5.5          -15.9
          StdDev            3.1            3.5            4.5            4.4            5.8
           ZStat            0.4            0.6            0.6            0.8            0.8
        Variance            9.6           12.3           20.3           19.8           34.1


48 Occurrences

Johnson & Johnson - Trend Following Signal

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