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CEC Entertainment, Inc. - An Earnings Blast 
Monday, November 2, 2009
By Jay Pasch
CEC Entertainment (CEC) bounded higher with an Extra Big gain of 15.3% on Friday, recording an Unusual Volume rally with volume coming in at 1.5M shares, over 5 times the 50-day average after reporting solid third-quarter earnings. Looking back at prior advances with like attributes in terms of both price and volume, we see the prospects for a continued advance.
Q: What is CEC's history of price movement after recording a day that is up Extra Big with our Unusual volume descriptor?
A: According to the 16 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that CEC has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 17 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Friday, 30 October 2009) is Tuesday, 24 November 2009. CEC rallies in 94% of the cases (15 of 16) by an average of 6.1% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 1 decline is -1.6%. The overall return of the 16 cases is 5.6%, which, based on the close of CEC on the event date ($29.21), provides a target price of $30.85.
To view and modify the event parameters defining this study, click here3 to launch the EventEdge® tool.
Mr. Jay Pasch4 is a private futures and equities trader based in Minnesota. He may hold positions in the instruments mentioned in his trading ideas.
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Let variable values:
@ = GII.CEC.NYSE
theEvent = IF
1 value percent_move of @ is more than
(30 day average of 1 value percent_move of @ +
(3 * 30 day std_dev of 1 value percent_move of @
)
)
AND
@ is up
AND
Volume of @ is more than (4 * 20 value average of volume of @ 1 value ago )
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+9 t+10 t+13 t+16 t+17
12/02/1991 Mon 6.0 8.6 10.3 9.5 10.3
02/01/1996 Thu 4.2 3.4 14.4 17.8 13.6
06/13/1996 Thu 4.2 5.9 18.9 24.4 17.6
09/27/1996 Fri -1.4 -1.4 2.7 3.4 8.6
01/21/1998 Wed 4.5 8.3 4.0 6.1 6.6
04/20/1998 Mon 2.1 2.8 -1.0 -0.3 2.3
07/19/2000 Wed -1.8 3.5 9.1 6.0 4.2
04/18/2001 Wed 4.1 2.9 -0.4 4.1 2.0
10/16/2003 Thu 2.4 1.6 6.0 6.8 5.5
07/15/2004 Thu 4.5 5.1 4.0 -1.4 -1.6
04/20/2006 Thu 3.1 3.8 5.8 1.2 2.2
11/01/2006 Wed 5.7 5.9 6.0 4.8 3.2
10/24/2007 Wed 1.0 -2.3 -0.9 1.9 1.5
02/20/2008 Wed -0.1 1.3 -2.9 3.6 4.4
04/23/2008 Wed 6.2 7.1 10.1 5.6 3.8
07/23/2008 Wed 0.1 -0.6 0.4 3.1 5.6
10/30/2009 Fri NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 2.8 3.5 5.4 6.0 5.6
AvgPos 3.7 4.6 7.6 7.0 6.1
AvgNeg -1.1 -1.4 -1.3 -0.9 -1.6
PctPos 81.2 81.2 75.0 87.5 93.8
PctNeg 18.8 18.8 25.0 12.5 6.2
Maximum 6.2 8.6 18.9 24.4 17.6
Minimum -1.8 -2.3 -2.9 -1.4 -1.6
StdDev 2.6 3.3 6.0 6.6 4.9
ZStat 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1
Variance 6.7 10.7 36.3 43.4 23.9
17 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=CEC
3 http://www.markethistory.com/content/events/stocks/chart.html?ticker=CEC&events=UpXXL0,UnusualVolGain0
4 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=pasch