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Tiffany & Co. - A Premium Stock 
Monday, August 31, 2009
By Robert Kolton
Tiffany & Co. (TIF) rallied by an 'extra big' 11.3% on 'extra high' volume (8.5 million shares) Friday to close at $37.57. The rally on Friday caused Tiffany & Co. to gap higher and to set a new 13 week high of $37.66. Trading above all of the moving averages we track, Tiffany & Co. is up by a 'very large' 17% over the past five trading days. Will Tiffany & Co. continue to see rallies?
Q: How has Tiffany & Co. performed in the past after the stock rallies on 'extra high' volume, while closing above its 200 day moving average in the Third Quarter?
A: According to the 11 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that TIF has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 6 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Friday, 28 August 2009) is Tuesday, 8 September 2009. TIF rallies in 91% of the cases (10 of 11) by an average of 7.2% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 1 decline is -4.0%. The overall return of the 11 cases is 6.2%, which, based on the close of TIF on the event date ($37.57), provides a target price of $39.90.
Click here 3 to view this idea in EventEdge.
Robert Kolton4 is an intern analyst at MarketHistory.com.
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Let variable values:
@ = GII.TIF.NYSE
theEvent = IF
Date is third quarter
AND
1 value move of @ is more than 0
AND
volume of @ is more than exponential_average ( exponential_average ( volume
of @ 1 value ago, 0.33333 ), 0.064516129 ) +
(8 * 30 day std_dev of exponential_average ( volume of @ 1 value ago,
0.33333 )
)
AND
@ is more than 200 value average of @
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+5 t+6 t+7 t+8 t+9
08/17/1989 Thu 2.4 11.8 13.3 11.4 10.0
08/15/1994 Mon 0.3 2.4 2.7 1.7 3.4
08/15/1995 Tue 2.5 3.4 7.1 6.5 4.6
09/06/1996 Fri 10.8 11.8 10.8 10.1 16.4
08/18/1997 Mon 10.9 11.8 11.8 10.9 11.0
07/11/2001 Wed 6.2 6.8 6.2 5.8 2.2
08/11/2003 Mon 7.7 9.0 9.1 8.4 8.3
08/11/2005 Thu -3.4 -4.0 -5.4 -3.8 -4.0
08/31/2005 Wed 2.3 2.8 4.2 4.1 1.5
08/28/2008 Thu -1.9 3.9 0.1 -0.0 -2.6
07/08/2009 Wed 6.8 8.1 9.2 12.8 11.6
08/28/2009 Fri NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 4.1 6.2 6.3 6.2 5.7
AvgPos 5.5 7.2 7.4 8.0 7.7
AvgNeg -2.7 -4.0 -5.4 -1.9 -3.3
PctPos 81.8 90.9 90.9 81.8 81.8
PctNeg 18.2 9.1 9.1 18.2 18.2
Maximum 10.9 11.8 13.3 12.8 16.4
Minimum -3.4 -4.0 -5.4 -3.8 -4.0
StdDev 4.8 5.0 5.5 5.3 6.3
ZStat 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.9
Variance 23.1 25.1 30.8 27.7 40.2
12 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=TIF
3 http://www.markethistory.com/content/events/stocks/chart.html?ticker=TIF&events=quarter,MyUp0,ExtraHighVol0,AboveSMA2000
4 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=Rob.Kolton