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Dow and the Full Moon 
DJIAMonday, February 9, 2009
By Anthony Kolton
The Dow Jones Industrial Aveage last week gained 3.5% on the week, closing at 8280.59 after several forays below the 8,000 level, which seems to be the bulls' rallying point. Friday closed with a 2.7% gain despite difficult news on the employment front.
Q: What's happened in the past when the Dow makes a new 5-day high when it is down 25% or more over the last year, and the moon will be full on the next trading day?
A: According to the 9 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that DJIA.t has shown a very strong bearish edge that peaks 19 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bearish edge relative to the current event date (Friday, 6 February 2009) is Friday, 6 March 2009. DJIA.t declines in 100% of the cases (9 of 9) by an average of -8.2% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the 9 cases is -8.2%, which, based on the close of DJIA.t on the event date (8280.59), provides a target price of 7601.58.
Anthony Kolton2 is president of Logical Information Machines3 and Markethistory.com, Inc.
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Let variable values:
@ = DJIA
theEvent = IF
High of DJIA is more than 1 week highest of high of DJIA 1 value ago *
0.99
AND
1 year percent_move of DJIA is less than -25
AND
1 day later
{
Date is in "ASTRO/moon_full.date"
}
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+3 t+5 t+10 t+15 t+19
09/05/1930 Fri 2.0 0.3 -4.7 -11.3 -12.2
06/29/1931 Mon -0.8 0.1 -6.7 -5.4 -8.9
10/23/1931 Fri -7.7 -4.5 7.3 -3.8 -10.0
02/19/1932 Fri -4.6 -5.3 1.4 -5.7 -8.3
06/16/1932 Thu -7.5 -7.0 -14.9 -18.1 -11.9
11/10/1932 Thu -0.4 -3.9 -10.3 -14.7 -8.4
02/11/1938 Fri -0.0 1.1 3.8 0.4 -2.0
05/12/1938 Thu -1.8 -2.8 -8.7 -6.6 -4.0
10/30/1974 Wed -2.3 -0.6 -2.1 -9.4 -8.3
02/06/2009 Fri NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg -2.6 -2.5 -3.9 -8.3 -8.2
AvgPos 2.0 0.5 4.1 0.4 NaN
AvgNeg -3.1 -4.0 -7.9 -9.4 -8.2
PctPos 11.1 33.3 33.3 11.1 0.0
PctNeg 88.9 66.7 66.7 88.9 100.0
Maximum 2.0 1.1 7.3 0.4 -2.0
Minimum -7.7 -7.0 -14.9 -18.1 -12.2
StdDev 3.3 2.9 7.1 5.7 3.3
ZStat -0.8 -0.9 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5
Variance 11.2 8.1 51.0 32.6 11.2
10 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=kolton
3 http://www.lim.com/