Dow and the Full Moon   Monday, February 9, 2009
By Anthony KoltonEditor's Note: 17 February 2009 - Tony's predicted move to the 7601.58 level in the Dow was fulfilled today. The Dow traded as low as 7,551.01 before closing at 7,552.60. We're not far from the low set on November 23rd at 7,449.38.
 The Dow Jones Industrial Aveage last week gained 3.5% on the week, closing at 8280.59 after several forays below the 8,000 level, which seems to be the bulls' rallying point. Friday closed with a 2.7% gain despite difficult news on the employment front. Q: What's happened in the past when the Dow makes a new 5-day high when it is down 25% or more over the last year, and the moon will be full on the next trading day? A: According to the 9 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that DJIA.t has shown a very strong bearish edge that peaks 19 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bearish edge relative to the current event date (Friday, 6 February 2009) is Friday, 6 March 2009. DJIA.t declines in 100% of the cases (9 of 9) by an average of -8.2% relative to the close on the event date. The overall return of the 9 cases is -8.2%, which, based on the close of DJIA.t on the event date (8280.59), provides a target price of 7601.58. Anthony Kolton is president of Logical Information Machines and Markethistory.com, Inc.
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| | Let variable values:
@ = DJIA
theEvent = IF
High of DJIA is more than 1 week highest of high of DJIA 1 value ago *
0.99
AND
1 year percent_move of DJIA is less than -25
AND
1 day later
{
Date is in "ASTRO/moon_full.date"
}
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+3 t+5 t+10 t+15 t+19
09/05/1930 Fri 2.0 0.3 -4.7 -11.3 -12.2
06/29/1931 Mon -0.8 0.1 -6.7 -5.4 -8.9
10/23/1931 Fri -7.7 -4.5 7.3 -3.8 -10.0
02/19/1932 Fri -4.6 -5.3 1.4 -5.7 -8.3
06/16/1932 Thu -7.5 -7.0 -14.9 -18.1 -11.9
11/10/1932 Thu -0.4 -3.9 -10.3 -14.7 -8.4
02/11/1938 Fri -0.0 1.1 3.8 0.4 -2.0
05/12/1938 Thu -1.8 -2.8 -8.7 -6.6 -4.0
10/30/1974 Wed -2.3 -0.6 -2.1 -9.4 -8.3
02/06/2009 Fri NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg -2.6 -2.5 -3.9 -8.3 -8.2
AvgPos 2.0 0.5 4.1 0.4 NaN
AvgNeg -3.1 -4.0 -7.9 -9.4 -8.2
PctPos 11.1 33.3 33.3 11.1 0.0
PctNeg 88.9 66.7 66.7 88.9 100.0
Maximum 2.0 1.1 7.3 0.4 -2.0
Minimum -7.7 -7.0 -14.9 -18.1 -12.2
StdDev 3.3 2.9 7.1 5.7 3.3
ZStat -0.8 -0.9 -0.5 -1.5 -2.5
Variance 11.2 8.1 51.0 32.6 11.2
10 Occurrences | |
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DJIA