UST lit one up for the bulls yesterday, rising a 'big' $0.93, or 1.8%, closing at $53.89 on a hot August day replete with a cross above the 100-period moving average. History suggests a continuation of the bullish fire dance after asking the question...

Q: Over the course of its history, how has UST performed after crossing above its 100-day moving average during the month of August?

A: According to the 11 previous previous occurrences of this event, UST has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 29 trading days after the event. UST rallies in 100% of the cases (11 of 11) by an average of 12.1% relative to the close on the event date, thus projecting a target price of $60.41 by Monday, 22 September 2008.

To further view this event or modify the event parameters, click here here³ to launch this idea with our EventEdge® tool.

Mr. Jay Pasch⁴ is a private futures and equities trader based in Minnesota. He may hold positions in the instruments mentioned in his trading ideas.

Let variable values:
@	=	GII.UST.NYSE
theEvent	=	IF
   @ crosses above 100 value average of @
AND
  Date is August
THEN 1
ENDIF


      Date   Day           t+27           t+28           t+29           t+33           t+35

08/22/1968   Thu           13.5           21.6           22.8           28.7           27.5
08/12/1971   Thu            6.8            9.4           10.8           10.8           13.7
08/10/1973   Fri           18.5           18.5           25.0           26.9           25.9
08/24/1973   Fri           23.7           19.3           18.4           19.3           19.3
08/19/1977   Fri           -2.5           -2.9            0.4            3.7            2.5
08/18/1982   Wed           10.0           10.5           10.5           12.7           15.9
08/07/1990   Tue            0.4            1.7            1.7           -2.6            0.9
08/28/1990   Tue            7.6            5.1            1.3            5.9            5.1
08/26/1998   Wed            9.5           11.6           12.5            9.8           15.2
08/10/2000   Thu           26.9           25.8           23.5           31.2           40.8
08/29/2003   Fri            7.2            5.9            6.2            6.7            2.2
08/11/2008   Mon            NaN            NaN            NaN            NaN            NaN

             Avg           11.1           11.5           12.1           13.9           15.4
          AvgPos           12.4           12.9           12.1           15.5           15.4
          AvgNeg           -2.5           -2.9            NaN           -2.6            NaN
          PctPos           90.9           90.9          100.0           90.9          100.0
          PctNeg            9.1            9.1            0.0            9.1            0.0
         Maximum           26.9           25.8           25.0           31.2           40.8
         Minimum           -2.5           -2.9            0.4           -2.6            0.9
          StdDev            9.0            8.9            9.2           11.1           12.6
           ZStat            1.2            1.3            1.3            1.3            1.2
        Variance           81.7           79.7           85.1          123.1          157.8


12 Occurrences

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Web Address of this trading idea:

http://www.markethistory.com/subscribe/best_of/content.html/14590.html

Links:

¹ http://www.lim.com
² http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=UST
³ http://www.markethistory.com/content/events/stocks/chart.html?ticker=UST&events=month,CrossAboveSMA1000
⁴ http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=pasch

UST Inc - A Smoking August

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