UST Inc - A Smoking August   Tuesday, August 12, 2008
By Jay Pasch
 UST lit one up for the bulls yesterday, rising a 'big' $0.93, or 1.8%, closing at $53.89 on a hot August day replete with a cross above the 100-period moving average. History suggests a continuation of the bullish fire dance after asking the question... Q: Over the course of its history, how has UST performed after crossing above its 100-day moving average during the month of August? A: According to the 11 previous previous occurrences of this event, UST has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 29 trading days after the event. UST rallies in 100% of the cases (11 of 11) by an average of 12.1% relative to the close on the event date, thus projecting a target price of $60.41 by Monday, 22 September 2008. To further view this event or modify the event parameters, click here here to launch this idea with our EventEdge® tool. Mr. Jay Pasch is a private futures and equities trader based in Minnesota. He may hold positions in the instruments mentioned in his trading ideas.
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| | Let variable values:
@ = GII.UST.NYSE
theEvent = IF
@ crosses above 100 value average of @
AND
Date is August
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+27 t+28 t+29 t+33 t+35
08/22/1968 Thu 13.5 21.6 22.8 28.7 27.5
08/12/1971 Thu 6.8 9.4 10.8 10.8 13.7
08/10/1973 Fri 18.5 18.5 25.0 26.9 25.9
08/24/1973 Fri 23.7 19.3 18.4 19.3 19.3
08/19/1977 Fri -2.5 -2.9 0.4 3.7 2.5
08/18/1982 Wed 10.0 10.5 10.5 12.7 15.9
08/07/1990 Tue 0.4 1.7 1.7 -2.6 0.9
08/28/1990 Tue 7.6 5.1 1.3 5.9 5.1
08/26/1998 Wed 9.5 11.6 12.5 9.8 15.2
08/10/2000 Thu 26.9 25.8 23.5 31.2 40.8
08/29/2003 Fri 7.2 5.9 6.2 6.7 2.2
08/11/2008 Mon NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 11.1 11.5 12.1 13.9 15.4
AvgPos 12.4 12.9 12.1 15.5 15.4
AvgNeg -2.5 -2.9 NaN -2.6 NaN
PctPos 90.9 90.9 100.0 90.9 100.0
PctNeg 9.1 9.1 0.0 9.1 0.0
Maximum 26.9 25.8 25.0 31.2 40.8
Minimum -2.5 -2.9 0.4 -2.6 0.9
StdDev 9.0 8.9 9.2 11.1 12.6
ZStat 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2
Variance 81.7 79.7 85.1 123.1 157.8
12 Occurrences | |
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