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Emcor Group - 'Extra Big' Trend 
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
By Mickey Schoenhals and Jay Pasch
Emcor Group (EME) rallied an 'extra big' 13.1% with the market's rising tide on Tuesday crossing above its upper Bollinger band. This was the 8th rally in 10 days for the stock posting gains of more than 20%. The stock has also broken above its recent high set in early June, and this move might serve as a breakout as EventEdge® indicates a strong bullish trend.
Q: How has EME responded to an 'extra big' rally that closes above its upper Bollinger band?
A: According to the 11 previous occurrences of this event omitting any repeat occurrences within 10 trading days, EventEdge® indicates that EME has shown a very strong bullish edge that peaks 22 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Tuesday, 29 July 2008) is Thursday, 28 August 2008.
EME rallies in 91% of the cases (10 of 11) by an average of 12.0% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 1 decline is -3.3%. The overall return of the 11 cases is 10.6%, which, based on the close of EME on the event date (31.05), provides a target price of 34.34.
To see this in EventEdge® click here3.
Mickey Schoenhals4 is an analyst with Markethistory.com.
Mr. Jay Pasch5 is a private futures and equities trader based in Minnesota. He may hold positions in the instruments mentioned in his trading ideas.
 |
Let variable values:
@ = GII.EME.NYSE
theEvent = IF
1 value percent_move of @ is more than
(30 day average of 1 value percent_move of @ +
(3 * 30 day std_dev of 1 value percent_move of @
)
)
AND
@ is more than bollinger_high ( @, 20 units, 2 )
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+1 t+11 t+20 t+22 t+25
03/15/1996 Fri 0.00 1.04 10.42 10.42 12.50
05/10/1996 Fri 0.00 -2.34 2.34 7.03 7.81
01/20/1997 Mon 0.42 2.51 6.28 11.30 13.81
09/03/1997 Wed 1.50 6.02 19.17 18.80 11.28
01/11/1999 Mon -0.73 -3.30 -3.30 -3.30 -4.40
04/16/1999 Fri 1.06 16.20 13.38 16.90 28.87
12/22/1999 Wed 2.65 -0.33 7.28 6.95 1.32
06/15/2000 Thu 0.53 -2.37 12.89 13.16 13.16
01/03/2006 Tue 2.25 9.44 13.42 13.07 11.89
02/23/2006 Thu 2.63 6.89 13.48 15.15 15.06
06/11/2007 Mon 0.51 2.33 1.40 7.65 9.30
07/29/2008 Tue NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 0.98 3.28 8.80 10.65 10.96
AvgPos 1.44 6.35 10.01 12.04 12.50
AvgNeg -0.73 -2.09 -3.30 -3.30 -4.40
PctPos 72.73 63.64 90.91 90.91 90.91
PctNeg 9.09 36.36 9.09 9.09 9.09
Maximum 2.65 16.20 19.17 18.80 28.87
Minimum -0.73 -3.30 -3.30 -3.30 -4.40
StdDev 1.14 5.93 6.65 6.07 8.34
ZStat 0.86 0.55 1.32 1.75 1.31
Variance 1.30 35.17 44.27 36.86 69.52
12 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=EME
3 http://www.markethistory.com/content/events/stocks/chart.html?ticker=EME&events=UpXXL0,CloseAboveUpperBoll0
4 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=mickey
5 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=pasch