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Ascent Solar Technologies - The 50-day Descent of Ascent    


 ASTI2




Tuesday, June 10, 2008

By Jay Pasch

Now off 39% from its May highs, Ascent Solar Technologies (ASTI) continues its descent, marking a 50-day low as the stock closed down 71 cents yesterday, or -6.1%, to close at $10.88. What does history show us about Ascent's 50-day low?

Q: Over the course of its history, How has ASTI performed after trading at a new 50-day low?

A: According to the 7 previous occurrences of this event, ASTI has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 28 trading days after the event. ASTI rallies in 71% of the cases (5 of 7) by an average of 31.0% relative to the close on the event date. The 2 declines is -5.5%. The overall return of the 7 cases is 20.6%, projecting a target price of $13.12 by Friday, 18 July 2008.

Mr. Jay Pasch3 is a private futures and equities trader based in Minnesota. He may hold positions in the instruments mentioned in his trading ideas.

Related Ideas:




 
Let variable values:
@	=	GII.ASTI.NASDAQ
theEvent	=	IF
   low of @ crosses below 50 day lowest of low of @  1 value ago
THEN 1
ENDIF


      Date   Day           t+27           t+28           t+29           t+30           t+31

08/22/2006   Tue          -16.1           -7.1          -10.4          -13.6           -8.9
09/13/2006   Wed           35.1           35.5           34.4           34.4           29.7
01/09/2007   Tue           26.5           26.5           36.7           36.7           68.2
05/29/2007   Tue           31.0           30.9           26.5           30.3           28.8
08/06/2007   Mon           39.4           40.7           39.4           86.2           98.3
01/22/2008   Tue            1.6           -4.0           -4.6            1.8           -2.7
03/10/2008   Mon           22.7           21.6           23.0           35.4           30.3
06/09/2008   Mon            NaN            NaN            NaN            NaN            NaN

             Avg           20.0           20.6           20.7           30.2           34.8
          AvgPos           26.1           31.0           32.0           37.5           51.1
          AvgNeg          -16.1           -5.5           -7.5          -13.6           -5.8
          PctPos           85.7           71.4           71.4           85.7           71.4
          PctNeg           14.3           28.6           28.6           14.3           28.6
         Maximum           39.4           40.7           39.4           86.2           98.3
         Minimum          -16.1           -7.1          -10.4          -13.6           -8.9
          StdDev           20.1           18.9           20.1           31.5           37.7
           ZStat            1.0            1.1            1.0            1.0            0.9
        Variance          402.8          356.6          405.6          991.4         1423.3


8 Occurrences
 

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1 http://www.lim.com
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=ASTI
3 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=pasch
4 http://www.markethistory.com/content/content.html/14280.html