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Patriot Coal Corp - Great Balls of Fire    


 PCX2




Monday, June 2, 2008

By Jay Pasch

The rally in the coal group continues unabated with representative Patriot Coal (PCX) hitting all-time highs during Friday's session, breaking the $100 mark with a $108.13 close, up $8.79, or 8.8% with history suggesting more short-term continuation.

Q: So, how has PCX performed in the past after printing an all-time high?

A: According to the 8 previous occurrences of this event, PCX has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 4 trading days after the event. PCX rallies in 88% of the cases (7 of 8) by an average of 7.3% relative to the close on the event date. The one decline is -.2%. The overall return of the 8 cases is 6.4%, projecting a target price of $115.05 by Thursday, 5 June 2008.

Mr. Jay Pasch3 is a private futures and equities trader based in Minnesota. He may hold positions in the instruments mentioned in his trading ideas.




 
Let variable values:
@	=	GII.PCX.NYSE
theEvent	=	IF
   high of @ is more than highest from begin_of_time to today of high of @  1
   value ago
THEN 1
ENDIF


      Date   Day            t+2            t+3            t+4            t+5            t+7

10/26/2007   Fri            2.1            0.1            5.6            0.0           -1.4
12/21/2007   Fri           -0.0           -0.5           -0.2           -0.4           -3.3
02/04/2008   Mon           -3.2           -3.6            0.2            2.7            5.9
02/20/2008   Wed            3.1            8.9            6.7            7.0            5.2
04/03/2008   Thu            7.7           11.6           12.6           12.2           15.9
04/17/2008   Thu            4.7            4.1            4.5           -1.6           -1.3
05/02/2008   Fri           12.5           16.5           18.0           15.7           15.6
05/16/2008   Fri            3.2            3.7            3.7            1.4            4.6
05/30/2008   Fri            NaN            NaN            NaN            NaN            NaN

             Avg            3.7            5.1            6.4            4.6            5.1
          AvgPos            5.5            7.5            7.3            7.8            9.4
          AvgNeg           -1.6           -2.1           -0.2           -1.0           -2.0
          PctPos           75.0           75.0           87.5           62.5           62.5
          PctNeg           25.0           25.0           12.5           25.0           37.5
         Maximum           12.5           16.5           18.0           15.7           15.9
         Minimum           -3.2           -3.6           -0.2           -1.6           -3.3
          StdDev            4.8            6.8            6.2            6.4            7.4
           ZStat            0.8            0.8            1.0            0.7            0.7
        Variance           22.6           45.9           38.2           40.8           54.5


9 Occurrences
 

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