Patriot Coal Corp - Great Balls of Fire   Monday, June 2, 2008
By Jay Pasch
 The rally in the coal group continues unabated with representative Patriot Coal (PCX) hitting all-time highs during Friday's session, breaking the $100 mark with a $108.13 close, up $8.79, or 8.8% with history suggesting more short-term continuation. Q: So, how has PCX performed in the past after printing an all-time high? A: According to the 8 previous occurrences of this event, PCX has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 4 trading days after the event. PCX rallies in 88% of the cases (7 of 8) by an average of 7.3% relative to the close on the event date. The one decline is -.2%. The overall return of the 8 cases is 6.4%, projecting a target price of $115.05 by Thursday, 5 June 2008. Mr. Jay Pasch is a private futures and equities trader based in Minnesota. He may hold positions in the instruments mentioned in his trading ideas.
| | Let variable values:
@ = GII.PCX.NYSE
theEvent = IF
high of @ is more than highest from begin_of_time to today of high of @ 1
value ago
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+7
10/26/2007 Fri 2.1 0.1 5.6 0.0 -1.4
12/21/2007 Fri -0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -3.3
02/04/2008 Mon -3.2 -3.6 0.2 2.7 5.9
02/20/2008 Wed 3.1 8.9 6.7 7.0 5.2
04/03/2008 Thu 7.7 11.6 12.6 12.2 15.9
04/17/2008 Thu 4.7 4.1 4.5 -1.6 -1.3
05/02/2008 Fri 12.5 16.5 18.0 15.7 15.6
05/16/2008 Fri 3.2 3.7 3.7 1.4 4.6
05/30/2008 Fri NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 3.7 5.1 6.4 4.6 5.1
AvgPos 5.5 7.5 7.3 7.8 9.4
AvgNeg -1.6 -2.1 -0.2 -1.0 -2.0
PctPos 75.0 75.0 87.5 62.5 62.5
PctNeg 25.0 25.0 12.5 25.0 37.5
Maximum 12.5 16.5 18.0 15.7 15.9
Minimum -3.2 -3.6 -0.2 -1.6 -3.3
StdDev 4.8 6.8 6.2 6.4 7.4
ZStat 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7
Variance 22.6 45.9 38.2 40.8 54.5
9 Occurrences | |
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