Cerner Corp - A Healthy Reversal   Wednesday, April 9, 2008
By Jay Pasch
 Cerner (CERN), a health care information systems concern, broke its 2008 sell channel with conviction this week with an 'extra large' 5-day gain, closing at $40.68 with a $1.49 gain, 3.8% in yesterday's weak tape. Q: How has CERN performed after printing an 'extra large' 5-day gain under its 200-period simple moving average? A: According to the 7 previous occurrences of this event, CERN has shown a very strong bullish edge that peaks 21 trading days after the event. CERN rallies in 100% of the cases (7 of 7) by an average of 12.4% relative to the close on the event date, providing a target price of $45.72 by Wednesday 7 May 2008. Consider letting this trade come in a bit, looking for a pull-back entry in the 39.02-39.50 area. Mr. Jay Pasch is a private futures and equities trader based in Minnesota. He may hold positions in the instruments mentioned in his trading ideas.
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| | Let variable values:
@ = GII.CERN.NASDAQ
theEvent = IF
5 value percent_move of @ is more than
(30 day average of 5 value percent_move of @ +
(3 * 30 day std_dev of 5 value percent_move of @
)
)
AND
@ is less than 200 value average of @
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+17 t+21 t+22 t+50 t+51
07/21/1989 Fri 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4
07/27/1994 Wed 10.7 17.9 20.0 12.1 11.4
11/25/1996 Mon -2.5 0.8 2.4 4.5 5.0
04/20/1998 Mon 18.1 14.5 18.1 15.6 18.1
04/10/2001 Tue 17.6 14.0 10.9 26.1 19.8
01/03/2003 Fri 6.6 6.0 3.3 0.2 -1.7
07/21/2006 Fri 15.9 16.1 16.1 15.4 15.6
04/08/2008 Tue NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 12.0 12.4 12.6 13.0 12.2
AvgPos 14.4 12.4 12.6 13.0 14.6
AvgNeg -2.5 NaN NaN NaN -1.7
PctPos 85.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 85.7
PctNeg 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3
Maximum 18.1 17.9 20.0 26.1 19.8
Minimum -2.5 0.8 2.4 0.2 -1.7
StdDev 7.7 6.5 7.2 8.5 7.9
ZStat 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5
Variance 58.9 41.6 52.4 73.1 63.0
8 Occurrences | |
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