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Crude Oil Futures - They're Baa-ack 
NYM.CLFriday, April 4, 2008
By Mickey Schoenhals
Crude Oil Futures (NYM.CL) took a couple of days off the first two days of the week, but it did not take long for them to bounce back. After seeing a two 'fake rallies' (close above the open but below previous close - open red candle) surrounding a 3.8% gain, Crude Oil has recovered nearly half of it's losses from the previous three days to close Thursday at $103.83. For what it's worth, I personally think that Crude Oil is a good short in the $107.25 to $108 range with a stop as high as $110.
Q: How has NYM.CL responded to a pivot bottom 2 values ago coupled with two 'fake rallies' from two values ago and today?
A: According to the 10 previous occurrences of this event omitting any repeat occurrences within 10 trading days, EventEdge® indicates that NYM.CL has shown a somewhat bullish edge that peaks 18 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Thursday, 3 April 2008) is Tuesday, 29 April 2008.
NYM.CL rallies in 80% of the cases (8 of 10) by an average of 5.6% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 2 declines is -1.1%. The overall return of the 10 cases is 4.2%, which, based on the close of NYM.CL on the event date (103.83), provides a target price of 108.19.
To see this in EventEdge® click here2.
Mickey Schoenhals3 is an analyst with Markethistory.com.
 |
Let variable values:
@ = CL
theEvent = IF
2 values ago {
@ is less than @ 1 value ago
AND
@ is more than open of @ }
AND
@ is less than @ 1 value ago
AND
@ is more than open of @
AND
2 values ago
{PivotBottom ( @ )
}
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+8 t+13 t+16 t+18 t+20
07/25/1984 Wed 4.00 4.11 3.54 3.86 5.43
10/08/1984 Mon -6.23 -2.49 -3.95 -2.18 -2.83
09/11/1985 Wed 3.34 7.03 7.86 7.32 6.67
09/03/1987 Thu 1.18 0.67 -0.51 0.21 1.59
11/09/1987 Mon -0.32 1.34 3.27 -0.05 1.56
12/12/1989 Tue 8.18 15.93 16.85 11.96 17.14
12/13/2001 Thu 14.02 17.99 10.04 7.28 2.98
07/15/2004 Thu 3.65 9.32 8.83 10.23 12.63
07/11/2005 Mon -5.24 -0.48 2.83 1.97 6.31
10/10/2005 Mon -1.25 0.49 -1.52 1.60 -2.14
04/03/2008 Thu NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 2.13 5.39 4.72 4.22 4.94
AvgPos 5.73 7.11 7.60 5.55 6.79
AvgNeg -3.26 -1.48 -1.99 -1.12 -2.48
PctPos 60.00 80.00 70.00 80.00 80.00
PctNeg 40.00 20.00 30.00 20.00 20.00
Maximum 14.02 17.99 16.85 11.96 17.14
Minimum -6.23 -2.49 -3.95 -2.18 -2.83
StdDev 6.04 7.06 6.24 4.74 6.24
ZStat 0.35 0.76 0.76 0.89 0.79
Variance 36.43 49.88 38.98 22.49 38.90
11 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/events/futures/chart.html?ticker=NYM.CL&events=FakeDecline2,FakeDecline0,MyPivotBottom2
3 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=mickey