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Tyson Foods - Spring Rally 
Thursday, April 3, 2008
By Ryan Soudan
Tyson Foods (TSN) declined by a 'big' 3.2% on Wednesday, with a 'trend day down' pattern on the day to close with a share price of $16.29. Partially as a result of the decline, its 5-day average crossed below its 20-day average, a sign of developing bearish momentum. Could this be a good time to own TSN, taking advantage of a historical tendency for this equity to rally from the beginning of April through the end of May?
Q: How has TSN performed in the past after the close on April 2nd?
A: According to the 23 previous occurrences of this event, TSN has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 38 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Wednesday, 2 April 2008) is Tuesday, 27 May 2008.
TSN rallies in 83% of the cases (19 of 23) by an average of 13.6% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 4 declines is -5.6%. The overall return of the 23 cases is 10.3%, which, based on the close of TSN on the event date (16.29), provides a target price of 17.97.
To view this event in SeasonalEdge, click here3, or EventEdge, click here4.
Ryan Soudan5 is an analyst with MarketHistory.com.
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Let variable values:
@ = GII.TSN.NYSE
theEvent = IF
Date is 4/2/_
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+5 t+20 t+35 t+38 t+40
04/02/1985 Tue 1.2 28.0 22.0 22.0 20.5
04/02/1986 Wed 0.0 17.9 19.0 20.2 17.9
04/02/1987 Thu 5.3 0.2 -6.0 -5.5 -8.9
04/01/1988 Fri -1.0 16.5 25.2 31.1 33.0
03/31/1989 Fri 0.8 13.3 20.0 18.3 20.0
04/02/1990 Mon 4.4 2.6 14.8 18.3 19.2
04/02/1991 Tue 6.5 12.0 6.1 7.4 12.0
04/02/1992 Thu 0.0 -8.6 10.8 7.2 6.5
04/02/1993 Fri -6.6 -2.2 0.0 4.4 4.4
04/01/1994 Fri -2.5 1.3 10.1 9.5 9.2
03/31/1995 Fri -1.0 -4.7 -1.0 -4.1 -3.6
04/02/1996 Tue -2.7 9.3 4.9 7.1 6.6
04/02/1997 Wed -1.4 8.1 3.4 6.8 7.4
04/02/1998 Thu 3.2 -3.5 6.3 10.1 7.0
04/02/1999 Fri 0.0 3.4 14.7 13.1 15.0
03/31/2000 Fri -9.0 -6.2 -9.0 -9.6 -9.6
04/02/2001 Mon 3.8 4.2 1.8 -3.3 -4.1
04/02/2002 Tue 1.8 9.5 8.4 10.4 8.6
04/02/2003 Wed 3.9 19.3 10.6 15.0 18.0
04/02/2004 Fri 0.3 6.0 5.3 12.8 11.9
04/01/2005 Fri 1.5 2.2 15.4 13.4 13.9
03/31/2006 Fri -3.5 7.1 24.9 19.4 16.9
04/02/2007 Mon -0.4 7.4 10.6 12.1 13.1
04/02/2008 Wed NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 0.2 6.2 9.5 10.3 10.2
AvgPos 3.0 9.3 12.3 13.6 13.7
AvgNeg -3.1 -5.0 -5.4 -5.6 -6.5
PctPos 47.8 78.3 82.6 82.6 82.6
PctNeg 39.1 21.7 13.0 17.4 17.4
Maximum 6.5 28.0 25.2 31.1 33.0
Minimum -9.0 -8.6 -9.0 -9.6 -9.6
StdDev 3.6 8.9 9.2 9.6 10.1
ZStat 0.1 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0
Variance 13.1 79.8 85.4 92.7 102.3
24 Occurrences |
Comments:
Web Address of this trading idea:
Links:
2 http://www.markethistory.com/content/analog/analog.html?ticker=TSN
3 http://www.markethistory.com/content/seasonal/stocks/edge.html?mt=GII.TSN.NYSE&t=TSN&d=2008-04-03&v=a
4 http://www.markethistory.com/content/events/stocks/chart.html?ticker=TSN
5 http://www.markethistory.com/staff/detail.html?s=rsoudan