Oil Stocks Index - Gathering Momentum   Thursday, April 3, 2008
By Gibbons Burke
 The AMEX XOI index of oil-related stocks has been gathering a head of steam since a late March re-testing the February low below 1300. The index closed at 1,386.27 after the high (1,397.35) was just shy of the 1,400 level, ending with a 1.2% gain on the day and a 2.0% gain over the last five days. The move was enough to bring the index to a close above its 50-day average price, but it still remains below its 200 and 100 day average prices. Q: How has the XOI index performed in the past when it has crossed above its 50 day average price in the month of April? A: According to the 9 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates that XOI has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 38 trading days after the event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the current event date (Wednesday, 2 April 2008) is Tuesday, 27 May 2008. XOI rallies in 89% of the cases (8 of 9) by an average of 7.0% relative to the close on the event date. The average of the 1 decline is -1.4%. The overall return of the 9 cases is 6.1%, which, based on the close of XOI on the event date (1,386.27), provides a target price of 1,470.83. I found this trading idea using our Nitro event scanner and you can see the full idea (including indvidual bar charts for each historical occurrence) in our EventEdge® analysis tool here (requires a Gold or Platinum subscription.) Gibbons Burke is editor of MarketHistory.com.
| | Let variable values:
@ = XOI
theEvent = IF
@ crosses above 50 value average of @
AND
Date is April
THEN 1
ENDIF
Date Day t+5 t+10 t+20 t+30 t+38
04/01/1982 Thu 3.5 2.5 2.8 9.4 5.8
04/11/1991 Thu 3.7 2.4 4.0 -1.7 0.7
04/06/1992 Mon -2.4 -1.1 3.6 3.8 7.4
04/15/1994 Fri -0.9 -1.1 0.7 0.2 0.9
04/22/1997 Tue 0.3 3.9 6.6 8.1 12.4
04/05/2001 Thu 2.7 4.9 5.9 13.3 9.5
04/15/2002 Mon 2.1 -0.3 3.0 1.5 -1.4
04/30/2003 Wed 4.3 5.0 8.1 14.5 11.8
04/25/2005 Mon -2.5 -1.1 -5.0 -1.1 7.5
04/02/2008 Wed NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Avg 1.2 1.7 3.3 5.3 6.1
AvgPos 2.8 3.8 4.3 7.2 7.0
AvgNeg -1.9 -0.9 -5.0 -1.4 -1.4
PctPos 66.7 55.6 88.9 77.8 88.9
PctNeg 33.3 44.4 11.1 22.2 11.1
Maximum 4.3 5.0 8.1 14.5 12.4
Minimum -2.5 -1.1 -5.0 -1.7 -1.4
StdDev 2.6 2.6 3.8 6.2 5.0
ZStat 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.2
Variance 7.0 6.9 14.7 38.1 25.0
10 Occurrences | |
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XOI
