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Treasuries - Bullish Seasonal
FREE - 8/2
The TLT exchange traded fund, which tracks the The Long Term U.S. Treasury Bond market, is entering a period where it often rallies, according to its history...
By Gibbons Burke
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S&P 500 Futures - Crisis in Confidence Redux
FREE - 7/28
The S&P 500 futures contract rallied on Tuesday, it's fourth rally in a row, and it's third new 20-day high. But on the economic front, the Consumer Confidence survey came in lower than economists expectations, its lowest reading since February...
By Gibbons Burke
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Bearish Reversal in Stocks - Bullish for Bonds
FREE - 6/22
The Nasdaq Composite index opened the week on Monday morning up a 'big' 1.4% relative to Friday's close, but then spent the whole day taking it all back until it closed at 2,289.09, down 0.9% on the day, forming a 'trend day' bearish reversal pattern...
By Gibbons Burke
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eResearch Technology - Seasonal Booster Shot
FREE - 6/18
eResearch has been rallying nicely since the $5.344 low in February, rising 63.4% to the 52-week high of $8.73 in early June. It has backed off a bit from that high, and closed on Thursday at $8.45 after a 0.5% gain on the day. Where will it go next?
By Gibbons Burke
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Waddell & Reed Financial, Inc. - Ready About
FREE - 6/17
Waddell & Reed Financial closed nearly unchanged with a $0.07 gain at $25.57 on Wednesday for a Very Large five-day gain of 7.1%. Still down some -34% over the past 6 weeks, history suggests double-digit gains ahead according to today's 9-for-10 winner.
By Jay Pasch
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Stamps.com - Who Says Stamp Prices Never Go Down?
FREE - 6/16
Stamps.com has rallied for the last 4 trading days, and saw a 'big' 2.7% one-day gain on Monday followed by a 1.2% gain on Tuesday to close at 10.77 with a 6.6% gain over the last 5 trading days. However, the stock is entering a seasonally weak period...
By Gibbons Burke
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Natural Gas Seasonal Bearishness - When Will it Kick In?
FREE - 6/16
Natural Gas futures have been rallying in an exponential rise since late April with each day's pit session gapping higher and higher. The prompt contract gained 'big' for the second day in a row on Tuesday, gaining 3.7% following Monday's 4.7% gain...
By Gibbons Burke
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Seacor Holdings - Hold 'Em
FREE - 6/15
After testing trendline support in a broad down-trending channel, Seacor Holdings has been rallying strongly, gaining in four of the last five trading days and seeing a 'very big' 4.6% gain last Thursday contributing to a 'very large' 5-day gain...
By Gibbons Burke
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Costco - Another "Death" Cross?
FREE - 6/14
Costco shares dropped 0.2% on Friday to close the week with a 2.4% gain at $57.52. It was a 'fake decline' pattern, which happens when the stock closes lower on the day relative to the previous close, but rallied relative to the day's open...
By Gibbons Burke
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WMS Industries - Crossing the 200-day Average
FREE - 6/11
Caught in the recent market downdraft, WMS Industries dropped below the 200-day average on Tuesday and as of Wednesday's close had a 'large' 6.7% decline over the previous five trading days. But on Thursday the stock gained a 'big' 3.9% trend-day gain...
By Gibbons Burke
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Dow Peers Above the 10,000 level, Retreats
FREE - 6/10
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up to and beyond the 10,000 level on Wednesday, getting as high as 10,065.14, but then beat a hasty retreat back below that level by the close at 9,899.25. The average was down 0.4% on the day. Where to next?
By Gibbons Burke
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Affymetrix - Cheating the Death Cross
FREE - 6/10
Shares in Affymetrix have fallen in each of the trading days of this week, and started to fall last Friday with a 'big' 4.9% decline which was followed by another 'big' 5.6% drop on Monday, -3.5% on Tuesday and -0.8% on Wednesday...
By Gibbons Burke
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Death Cross Brings Life to Eli Lilly, History Says
FREE - 6/9
Shares of Eli Lilly have been trending downward in wide swings through most of 2010 and the stock is currently trading below its 200, 100, 50 and 20 day averages. It rallied on Tuesday, gaining a 'big' 1.0% to close at $32.90...
By Gibbons Burke
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Discovery Communications - Cross below the 50-day Average
FREE - 6/8
Discovery Communications has flirted with the idea of crossing below the 50-day average three times in the month of May, but while it traded below that level intra-day, it always rallied above it before the close. June is a different story...
By Gibbons Burke
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The Traveler Companies - Poised for a Rally?
FREE - 6/4
Shares in this Dow component have hung onto the strong gains of last Thursday, gaining on this Wednesday by a 'big' 2.4%, and though the stock declined yesterday by -0.1%, the five-day rate of change is a 'very large' 3.6%...
By Gibbons Burke
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Covance - Seasonal Bullishness
FREE - 6/3
One of the few stocks in our SeasonalEdge report for June 3rd showing a bullish tendency to rally this time of year is Covance, which rallied on Wednesday along with the rest of the market, gaining 1.94% to close at $53.07.
By Gibbons Burke
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Heartland Express - Heading Downtown
FREE - 6/2
Heartland Express shares are in the express elevator going down at the moment, having lost 12.0% from the 52-week high made in mid-April to Tuesday's close at $15.12, which caused the stock to cross below its 200-day average. Which floor next?
By Gibbons Burke
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Devry Inc. - A Flunking Grade
FREE - 6/1
Devry shares have fallen -22.7% from the 52-week high, $74.36, made in the third week of April, to Friday's close at $57.49. The stock dropped 7.3% last week and on Thursday sank to a 13-week low, and broke through a supporting trend line...
By Gibbons Burke
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Home Shopping Network - I found a Bargain on TV!
FREE - 5/28
Home Shopping Network shares rallied by a 'big' 8.1% on Thursday to close at $27.82, and, after gaining in four of the last 5 trading days it shows a 'very large' 5-day percentage gain of 12.7%. History shows this event has been a great bargain price...
By Gibbons Burke
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Hasbro - Crosses Above the 50-day Average in May
FREE - 5/27
Hasbro shares have been jumping around like their toys in the last couple of weeks, along with the rest of the markets. The day to day volatility has been extraordinary. Wednesday's gap higher caused shares to cross above the 50-day average...
By Gibbons Burke
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Reliance Steel - Trend Day in May
FREE - 5/26
Reliance Steel shares rallied relatively strongly on Tuesday, gaining 2.1% in a 'trend day' pattern move which caused the stock to cross back above the 200-day average price. According to history, trend days in May have been mostly bullish for RS...
By Gibbons Burke
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Digi International - Trend Day Down in May
FREE - 5/25
Digi International shares fell for the fifth straight day on Monday, declining by a 'big' -3.6% on a 'trend day' pattern decline to close at $8.93, down a 'large' -10.1% over the last 5 trading days. Things look rather bleak, but history suggests a buy...
By Gibbons Burke
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Lorillard Inc. - Defense
FREE - 5/24
Tobacco manufacturer Lorillard wilted for a fourth consecutive day on Friday, closing at $74.69 with a marginal decline of -1.0%. With an annual dividend yield of 5.4% and today's bullish study, Lorillard is one stock to consider in this dangerous market.
By Jay Pasch
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Johnson & Johnson - Flash-crash Lows
FREE - 5/21
Johnson & Johnson continued its precipitous decline on Thursday, down another -2.7% at the $60.55 close for an Extra Large a five-day decline of over -6.0%. As the stock falls back to re-test the lows of the May 6th crash at the $60 round, is it buy time?
By Jay Pasch
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Darling Intl - Dear Darlin'
FREE - 5/20
Darling shares have fallen out of favor during May, falling from the 52-week high of $9.75 in late April down 15.3% to Wednesday's close at $8.26. It has triggered a repeat occurrence of an event with bullish potential, and it is near solid support...
By Gibbons Burke
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Walmart - Prices are Up at the Discounter
FREE - 5/19
Walmart shares rallied by a 'very big' 1.8% on Tuesday, following up on a 'big' 1.2% gain on Monday, making for a 'very large' five-day percentage gain over the last five trading days after beating Wall Street earnings expectations...
By Gibbons Burke
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Amedesys - Buy the Dip
FREE - 5/17
Amedesys closed last week at $50.09 with a 'large' five-day decline of -7.3%, and on the last two days of the week closed below the lower Bollinger band after gapping down on Thursday, and on Friday declined to a 13-week low, testing support...
By Gibbons Burke
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Fiserv Inc. - Very Big Decline
FREE - 5/14
Fiserv shares took it on the chin on Thursday, dropping a 'very big' 5.0% to close at trendline support just below the $50 level. History indicates this may be a good time to buy FISV cheaply, and given the chart setup, if wrong, you'll know quickly...
By Gibbons Burke
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IBM - Extra Big Gains
FREE - 5/13
IBM shares surged an 'extra big' 4.6% on Wednesday to trade up to a new 13-week high, completely shaking off the market jitters that led to last week's robot rout. The share price closed the day on Wednesday at $132.68...
By Jay Pasch and Gibbons Burke
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S&P 500 Index Futures - May Day
FREE - 5/4
The month of May opened with a flourish on Monday with buyers bidding up the S&P 500 Index futures contract by 15.00 points for a 1.3% trend-day advance at the 1198.50 close. Assessing the strength of May's open we see a bit of potential weakness ahead.
By Jay Pasch
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Dow Jones Industrial - Extra Big Declines in the Second Quarter
FREE - 4/28
The Dow Jones Industrials ended a six-day rally streak by dropping an 'extra big' 1.9% on Tuesday after making a new 52-week high on Monday - something that's never happened before. The average closed at 10991.99 down a 'very large' 1.1% in five days...
By Gibbons Burke
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Crude Oil - Five Days Down
FREE - 4/14
Crude Oil Futures have fallen five days in a row as of Tuesday's close, falling a 'large' 3.2% over that time to close at $84.05, dropping below the 5 and 10-day averages. The MACD also went from bullish to bearish. What's next?
By Ryan Soudan and Gibbons Burke
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Discovery Communications - Uncovering a Trend
FREE - 4/7
Discovery Communications shares have rallied three trading days in a row, with Tuesday gaining a 'big' 1.5% in a trend-day move to the upside which lofted the stock to a new all-time high price of $34.67 before settling to close at $34.62...
By Gibbons Burke
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Reliance Steel - Reliable Signal
FREE - 3/30
Reliance Steel, which is seasonally strong this time of year, rallied by a 'very big' 4.8% on Monday, lofting the stock to a new 52-week high, and convincingly above the $50 price level to close at $50.46. Will the stock's bullish impulse continue higher?
By Gibbons Burke
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S&P Futures - Nine-day Runup
FREE - 3/11
The S&P 500 futures market has tied the record for the most number of successive daily gains in a row, at nine as of Wednesday's close. (The run in the underlying SPX index was interrupted by a single day's decline.) When has this event happened before?
By Gibbons Burke
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Aetna - Will the Rally Continue?
FREE - 3/3
Shares in Aetna have rallied in each of the last five trading days, for a five-day gain of 7.1% which ranks as 'very large on our volatility normalized scale. The chart suggests and indicators confirm the stock has been in an uptrend - will it continue?
By Gibbons Burke
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Service Corporation International - At Your Service
FREE - 3/2
SCI shares started the week with a 'very big' one-day gain of 4.8%, opening at the absolute low price of the day and closing at the high, a new 20-day high price, at $8.45. The stock is in full-on bullish mode, closing above all the averages...
By Gibbons Burke
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Nasdaq Composite Index - Momentum Falter Redux
FREE - 2/23
The Nasdaq Composite index fell slightly on Monday, dropping 0.1% to close at 2242.03. This is the first day of decline in seven days, and the two-day momentum is exactly flat at 0.0% after seven days of positive two-day momentum. Where to next?
By Gibbons Burke
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Russell 2000 Index - The Russell Hustle
FREE - 2/23
The Russell 2000 small-cap index printed a 9th consecutive day of gains on Monday with the bulls barely ekeing-out a closing gain of 0.60-points at 632.25. Today we compare the current 45.75-point rally of 7.8% with Russell's other historical rallies.
By Jay Pasch
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Edwards Lifesciences - Can't Keep A Good Stock Down Redux
FREE - 2/10
Shares in this heart valve manufacturer suffered a mild cardiac arrest in mid-January, breaking a nice up- and-to-the-right trend from a low of $60.90 in September which brought the stock to a 52-week high of $94.55. The panic rout got worse this week...
By Gibbons Burke
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S&P 500 Index Futures - Fourth and Four
FREE - 2/9
S&P 500 Index Futures declined for a fourth consecutive day on Monday, declining 3.75 points for a -0.4% loss at the 1056.00 close after the bears attacked the afternoon session to claim the day. With four days of trading ahead this week, what's next?
By Jay Pasch
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Tyson - Earnings Momentum
FREE - 2/8
Tyson Foods announced improved first quarter earnings on Friday before the market opened and opened the day with an 'extra big' gain, which traded to set a new 52-week high at $15.25, but then sold off to close lower than the opening price at $14.65.
By Gibbons Burke
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Disney - Shares are "Up"
FREE - 2/4
Disney shares have rallied, perhaps in reaction to the news that the Pixar animated film "Up" was nominated for an Academy Award for Best Picture. The stock saw a 'big' 1.6% gain on Tuesday, and 'very big' 2.6% on Wednesday...
By Gibbons Burke
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S&P 500 Index futures - Bouncing Back?
FREE - 2/3
The S&P 500 index futures market has rallied strongly so far this week, with 'big' one-day percentage gains on Monday (1.5%) and Tuesday (1.0%) totaling 2.5%. This move came after a 'nine down' pattern - 9 days where the 4-day change is negative...
By Gibbons Burke
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Amex Biotechnology Index - Strong Medicine
FREE - 2/3
The Amex Biotech Index reversed last week's languid performance by setting a 52-week high on Tuesday, shooting up 25.69-points for a Very Big gain of 2.6%, ending the day with a close over the 1,000 round at 1002.27. What's next for this drug Kingpin?
By Jay Pasch
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Lumber Futures - Extra Big Gains
FREE - 1/15
Lumber futures gapped higher and rallied to the close for a 6.1% extra big gain on the day which took the market to a new 20-day high, and caused it to cross above its 200 and 50-day average prices. Will the move continue higher? History says it might...
By Gibbons Burke
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Baidu - Google says Good-baidu China?
FREE - 1/14
Chinese search giant Baidu shares rallied strongly in the wake of the news that Google would be suspending service to the nation in the wake of black-ops hackers targeting Chinese dissidents. The stock gained an 'extra big' 13.7% and is poised for more...
By Gibbons Burke
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Alcoa - Crushed Aluminum
FREE - 1/13
Alcoa shares, after gapping higher to traded to a new 52-week high at $16.25 (but, ominously closing lower than the opening price) on Monday, were crushed on Tuesday, gapping down 'extra big' and closing down an 'extra big' 11.1% on the day...
By Gibbons Burke
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Tyson Foods Inc. - Meat Grinder
FREE - 1/7
The world's largest processor of meats is caught in a trading range grinder since July, unable to break convincingly above the $13 level since setting the $13.243 high in mid-summer. Wednesday's bullish move, however, may be a sign of more to come...
By Gibbons Burke
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Buoyant Ben Bernanke - Time's Person of the Year
FREE - 12/29
Fed Chairman Ben Bernancke is the first Fed chair to be named Time Magazine's Person of the Year, and the chairman of the Fed has only graced the cover of Time on five previous occasions. How has the market responded in the past to this event?
By Gibbons Burke
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Johnson & Johnson - Trend Following Signal
FREE - 11/6
After crossing below and back above the 100-day average in the last two days of October, JNJ shares did it again this week, crossing below last Friday to fall to a 13-week low ($58.78), but recovering on Wednesday and Thursday, where it closed at $59.98.
By Gibbons Burke
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Dow Jones Industiral Average - Knocktober
FREE - 11/2
October closed its books with a day of hard knocks for the bulls as the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a Very Big decline of 2.5%, while the S&P 500 Index followed suit with a Very Big 2.8% decline of its own. What does history tell us about such moves?
By Jay Pasch
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CEC Entertainment, Inc. - An Earnings Blast
FREE - 11/2
CEC Entertainment bounded higher with an Extra Big gain of 15.3% on Friday, recording an Unusual Volume rally with volume coming in at 1.5M shares, over 5 times the 50-day average after reporting solid third-quarter earnings. What's next for CEC?
By Jay Pasch
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Dow 10,000 - What's the Significance?
FREE - 10/15
The Dow has seen 13 days in the past where the high has crossed above the 10,000 level (omitting repeat occurrences within two weeks) with a history stretching back to March, 1999. The last time it did so was October 19, 2004. What happens next?
By Gibbons Burke
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Nasdaq Composite Index - Very Big Five Day Gain
FREE - 9/10
The Nasdaq Composite index rallied for the fourth trading day in a row on Wednesday, lofting the index above the 2,000 level on Friday and to a new six-month high before closing at 2060.39, up 62.8% from the 1265.52 low set in March...
By Gibbons Burke
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Tiffany & Co. - A Premium Stock
FREE - 8/31
Tiffany & Co. rallied by an 'extra big' 11.3% on 'extra high' volume (8.5 million shares) Friday to close at $37.57. The rally on Friday caused Tiffany & Co. to gap higher and to set a new 13 week high of $37.66. What's next?
By Robert Kolton
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S&P 500 Index - A Four Day Pattern
FREE - 8/20
The S&P 500 Index printed a bullish Outside Day on Wednesday, rising 6.79 points for a 0.7% gain with a closing level of 996.46. Coming on the heels of two Big down days and an Inside Day, Wednesday's Outside Day sets up today's four-day pattern.
By Jay Pasch
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S&P 500 Index - Measuring the Moves
FREE - 8/19
The S&P 500 index halted two days of hard selling with an inside-day gain of 1.0% on Tuesday. Closing at 989.67 with additional weakness reasserting itself in the overnight session, today we seek guidance by measuring SPX's 3-day move.
By Jay Pasch
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S&P 500 Index - One-two Punch
FREE - 8/18
Stocks continued to take a beating on Monday, dropping a 'very big' -2.4% to continue the slide which began on Friday with a 'big' 0.9% decline. How has the index responded in the past when it has seen such a one-two bearish punch?
By Gibbons Burke
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Analog Update - Dow 1929 vs. Nasdaq 2000 - Trading Range Ahead (UPDATED 7/24)
FREE - 7/13
Our Analog Chart showing the parallel moves between the Dow before and after the 1929 peak and crash and the Nasdaq peak in 2000 and subsequent crash has played out nicely, calling the bottom in March. Now things look less directional...
By Anthony Kolton
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Dow Jones Industrial Average - Bearishness to Continue
FREE - 6/18
The Dow fell for the third day in a row on Wednesday, dropping 0.1% (7.49) after crossing below the average value over the last 200 days on Tuesday and experiencing a 'big' 2.1% drop on Monday. The five-day decline is 'large' for the third day also...
By Anthony Kolton
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Crude Oil Bullishness
FREE - 5/14
Crude Oil futures have slacked off a bit from their upward pace of late, which has taken prices from the low 40s to closing near $60/barrel on Wednesday. The nearby contract closed at $58.02, down -1.4% on the day in a 'bearish reversal' pattern...
By Ronny Kraft
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Dow - 5% Gains (UPDATED)
FREE - 3/11
A chart showing when the Dow has seen 5% gains in the past...
By Gibbons Burke
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Dow - Bearish Outlook
FREE - 3/2
After a 'big' 3.3% rally on Tuesday of last week, which almost made up for the big -3.4% decline on Monday, the day before, the stock market sold off on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, with declines in excess of 1.0% each day...
By Anthony Kolton
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Dow and the Full Moon
FREE - 2/9
The Dow last week gained 3.5% on the week, closing at 8280.59 after several forays below the 8,000 level, which seems to be the bulls' rallying point. Friday closed with a 2.7% gain despite difficult news on the employment front...
By Anthony Kolton
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Analog Update - Dow 1929 vs. Nasdaq 2000 (UPDATED 10 Dec 2008)
FREE - 12/8
Our analog chart comparing the stock market movements from 1924 through 1938 1940 in the Dow Jones Industrial average to the movements in the Nasdaq Composite index seventy years later suggests the bears may have farther to go...
By Anthony Kolton
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Previous Bear Market Rallies in the Dow
FREE - 11/28
Stocks have rallied over the last four days. The Dow has rallied 15.5% over that period. The index is still in the clutches of the bear--it closed at 8,726.61 below the average value over the last 200, 100, and 50 days--but the bulls are charging...
By Anthony Kolton
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Ten-year Treasury Notes - Three Days of Strength
FREE - 11/19
The Ten-year Treasury futures market has been surging, experiencing a 'big' one-day rally on Tuesday after a gap open and following rallies on Friday and Monday. The contract closed at 118 30/64, up a 1 and 1/64 on the day...
By Gibbons Burke
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Core PPI higher...but Bonds don't care
FREE - 11/19
30 year US Treasuries rallied smartly on Tuesday in the face of stronger equities and higher than expected core wholesale inflation measures.
By Jason Thompson
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Euro in British Pounds - Breakaway Moves
FREE - 11/13
The value of one Euro in British Pounds has been rising, from a low of GBP 0.7700 in mid-October the exchange rate traded on Wednesday at an all-time high of GBP 0.8414, during a day where the rate made a 'very big' one-day gain...
By Gibbons Burke
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Scary Halloween for Stocks
FREE - 10/31
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 33% since October 30th of last year. How have stocks performed in the past when the indexes are down 20% or more over the last year on the close on the day before Halloween?
By Anthony Kolton and Gibbons Burke
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GOOG Gagged
FREE - 9/9
The U.S. Treasury threw a party Monday, bailing out Fannie, Freddie, and the FHLB system as well as the multitudes that had previously purchased their debts. However, Google has been on a downslope lately...
By Jason Thompson
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Research In Motion a Study In Movement Upward?
FREE - 8/21
Research In Motion Ltd saw a 'big' trend day up, and crossed above its 100-day moving average. Will recent bullishness continue...?
By Jeffrey Garceau
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UST Inc - A Smoking August
FREE - 8/12
UST lit one up for the bulls yesterday, rising a 'big' $0.93, or 1.8%, closing at $53.89 on a hot August day replete with a cross above the 100-period moving average. Join us, as history suggests a continuation of the bullish fire dance.
By Jay Pasch
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Soybean Oil Futures - September Weakness
FREE - 7/31
Soybean Oil Futures have rallied on four of the past five trading days, but are still down -0.5% over the span. Will the declines continue to out weight the rallies?
By Ronish Patel
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Emcor Group - 'Extra Big' Trend
FREE - 7/30
Emcor Group rallied an 'extra big' 13.1% with the market's rising tide on Tuesday crossing above its upper Bollinger band. Can the stock add to its gains?
By Mickey Schoenhals and Jay Pasch
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Aluminum Alloy Futures - Mixed Signals
FREE - 7/30
Aluminum Alloy Futures opened Tuesday's session at its low and almost 2% lower than Monday's close. However, AA traded upward in a 'trend day' up fashion during the session, but still recorded a decline. How will AA react to the mixed signals?
By Ronish Patel
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Stocks - The Smell of Fear Redux Redux
FREE - 7/29
Friday gave stocks a pregnant pause from the bear's down-swiping claws, but after a weekend to think about it, the bears resumed their relentless attack on equity values before the SEC decides that short-selling is an act of terror...
By Gibbons Burke
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"R.E.W.Ind" - Still Flashing
FREE - 7/7
Since this Spring, when talk of the likelihood of a recession was buzzing, economists have backed off of that somewhat - tempering their harsh judgement of the economy. According to our Recession Early Warning Indicator (REWIND), it's still on...
By Gibbons Burke
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Ascent Solar Technologies - The 50-day Descent of Ascent
FREE - 6/10
Now off 39% from its May highs, Ascent Solar Technologies continues its descent marking a 50-day low as the stock closed down 71 cents yesterday, or -6.1%, to close at $10.88. What does history show us about Ascent's 50-day low?
By Jay Pasch
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NCI Building Systems - Constructing Gains
FREE - 6/4
Supplier to the non-residential construction industry, NCI Building Systems recorded an unusual volume-price rally yesterday, gaining $3.25, or 10.8%, closing at $33.40 on increased guidance. History provides a bullish tell given yesterday's move.
By Jay Pasch
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Patriot Coal Corp - Great Balls of Fire
FREE - 6/2
The rally in the coal group continues unabated with representative Patriot Coal hitting all-time highs during Friday's session, breaking the $100 mark with a $108.13 close, up $8.79, or 8.8% with history suggesting more short-term continuation.
By Jay Pasch
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Japan Small-cap Fund: The Rising Sun
FREE - 5/27
Japan Small-cap Fund sank another 13 cents, or 1.3%, down for a fifth straight session on Friday, closing at $9.52 recording a very large five-day decline, history of which suggests a pending rise.
By Jay Pasch
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Crude Oil - to reach $140/bbl.?
FREE - 5/6
Crude Oil futures rallied a second 'big' day in a row, gaining 3.1% following Friday's 3.4% gain, to close at a record $119.97 after trading as high as $120.30. Other energy futures rallied strongly as well... What's the significance?
By Anthony Kolton
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Yahoo! Inc.- Numbers Behind the News
FREE - 4/28
Shares of Yahoo! traded lower on Friday, down 50 cents or -1.8% closing at $26.80 as investors' confidence wanes over closing the merger deal with Microsoft. Keeping our eye on the historical ball, we put Yahoo!'s price action into perspective...
By Jay Pasch
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Papal Visits to the U.S. - Heaven and Hell (CORRECT)
FREE - 4/16
Pope Benedict XVi landed at Andrews Air Force base on Tuesday, commencing his first visit to the United States since he was elevated to pontiff of the Catholic Church, and the first papal visit of the third millennium...
By Gibbons Burke
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Stocks - The Smell of Fear Redux
FREE - 4/14
Stocks saw a massive sell-off on Friday - the Dow and S&P 500 fell 2.0%, and the Nasdaq dropped -2.6% - all three are 'big' one-day moves relative to recent volatility. Meanwhile capital withdrawn from stocks moved into Government bonds...
By Gibbons Burke
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Cerner Corp - A Healthy Reversal
FREE - 4/9
Cerner, a health care information systems concern, broke its 2008 sell channel with conviction this week with an 'extra large' 5-day gain, closing at $40.68 with a $1.49 gain, 3.8% in yesterday's weak tape.
By Jay Pasch
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Crude Oil Futures - They're Baa-ack
FREE - 4/4
Crude Oil Futures took a couple of days off the first two days of the week, but it did not take long for them to bounce back. How high will Crude be bouncing this time?
By Mickey Schoenhals
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Tyson Foods - Spring Rally
FREE - 4/3
Tyson Foods declined by a 'big' 3.2% on Wednesday to close with a share price of $16.29. Could this be a good time to own TSN, taking advantage of a historical tendency for this equity to rally from the beginning of April through the end of May?
By Ryan Soudan
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Oil Stocks Index - Gathering Momentum
FREE - 4/3
The AMEX XOI index of oil-related stocks has been gathering a head of steam since a late March re-testing the February low below 1300. The index closed at 1386.27 after the high was just shy of the 1400 level, ending with a 1.2% gain on the day...
By Gibbons Burke
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U.S. Dollar Index - Strong Moves. Will They Last?
FREE - 4/2
The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied 4 consecutive days with a 'very big' 1.1% rally on Tuesday. Many of us are hoping the Dollar will dig in, pull itself up by its bootstraps and get out of this deep hole, but what does history say?
By Mickey Schoenhals
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U.S. Dollar Index Futures - April Fools Rally
FREE - 4/2
U.S. Dollar Index Futures have enjoyed a fantastic couple of days, rallying in 4 consecutive days including a 'very big' gain on Tuesday, April Fools day. NBT.DX gained 1.1% on Tuesday to finish at 72.965.
By Ryan Soudan
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S&P 500 Index - April Fools?
FREE - 3/31
Today we evaluate the S&P 500 Index's 1315 close and -10.56 point decline of -.85% which comes one day ahead of quarter-end. Do the bulls have more than a tepid bounce off of 2008 lows with anemic volume in mind?
By Jay Pasch
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Southwestern Energy Co. - Bullish Seasonal
FREE - 3/31
Southwestern Energy Co. managed to hold up nicely through last week's market volatility. The stock gained 9.9% in a week that the S&P 500 lost -1.1%. This time of year seems to be quite favorable to the bulls in SWN...
By Ryan Soudan
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Live Cattle Futures - Rock Bottom
FREE - 3/28
Live Cattle Futures have seen back to back 'big' 'trend day declines' that crossed the market below its 52-week lowest low on Thursday. Will the Live Cattle Futures rebound or continue to drop to new lows?
By Mickey Schoenhals
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S&P 500 Index - An End-of-quarter Run
FREE - 3/27
The S&P 500 gave back a tolerable -11.85 points on Wednesday, or 0.88%, with a close at 1,341.14 after a 'very large' 5-day gain. History suggests continued up-side with the approach of quarter-end...
By Jay Pasch
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Google Inc.- A Gap Reversal
FREE - 3/25
Shares of Google gapped up and away from its 2008 declining trendline during yesterday's session, up $27.01, or 6.3%, to close at $460.56. Was yesterday's gap-and-go day a bullish tell?
By Jay Pasch
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Southwestern Energy - SeasonalEdge
FREE - 3/25
After losing over 10% in the 5 days leading up to Monday, Southwestern Energy came out strong responding with a 2.5% rally. Will the stock return to its heights or will the dip continue to drop?
By Mickey Schoenhals
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Aflac - Catching a Trend
FREE - 3/25
Last Thursday, the final trading day of the week, Aflac had its 5-day average cross above its 20-day average, and on Monday, despite closing lower on the day, its 10-day average crossed above its 50-day average. AFL could be picking up some momentum.
By Ryan Soudan
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CSX Corp - Carrying the Load
FREE - 3/24
The transport index continues to carry the bullish load across the sector landscape, with index component CSX among the top performers in the sector. CSX closed Thursday at $54.59, up $1.54 or 2.9% as it challenges all-time highs.
By Jay Pasch
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Allergan Specialty Therapeutics - Crossing Averages Redux
FREE - 3/24
Allergan Specialty Therapeutics saw its 50-day average cross below its 200-day average on Thursday after 3 consecutive rallies to close out the short week. Do these trend lines crossing have a long term affect?
By Mickey Schoenhals
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Update - Dow 1924-1937 Analog
FREE - 3/20
Back in May 2007 we featured an analog chart that shows the closely related patterns of movement between the Dow, which peaked in 1929, crashed and then bounced around for the next several years with the Nasdaq from the 2000 peak...
By Anthony Kolton
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Alexandria Real Estate Equities - Its not 'Unusual' to Bounce Back
FREE - 3/20
Alexandria Real Estate Equities posted a 'very big' loss on Wednesday, and it was accompanied with 'extra high' volume. The result was an 'unusual volume price decline', but history shows a reversal may be in store next...
By Mickey Schoenhals
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Marvel Enternainment- A Bullish Seasonal
FREE - 3/18
Marvel Entertainment (MVL) treaded Wall Street's violent wave action yesterday, closing nearly unchanged at $24.85 with an inside-day as the stock winds up ahead of a short-term period of bullish seasonality.
By Jay Pasch
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NASDAQ 100 Stock Index Futures - The Bearish Position is a Crowded One
FREE - 3/17
According to the most recent Commitment of Traders Report released two Friday's ago, both Commercial Hedgers and Large Speculators are net short of contracts. So with the bearish position being a crowded one, let us turn to history...
By Ryan Soudan
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Exelon Corporation - Testing its 100-MA
FREE - 3/17
Exelon Corporation has crossed below, then above, then below that average again on consecutive days ending on Friday. If history is any guide, this type of price action is quite bullish for EXC moving forward into the next month.
By Ryan Soudan
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The Coca-Cola Company - Price Warms Up with the Weather
FREE - 3/17
The Coca-Cola Company a 'very big' -2.4% decline on Friday. With a closing price of $57.53, is this the time of year to buy this price action to close out the week? Let us turn to history...
By Ryan Soudan
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Japanese Yen Futures - Found a Top?
FREE - 3/17
Japanese Yen Futures have rocketed up nearly 8% from the final days of February to today, but has the market found a top?
By Mickey Schoenhals
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U.S. Economy - Recession
FREE - 3/14
A lead story in the Wall Street Journal reports that most economists surveyed are 'increasingly certain' that the U.S. economy is in a business contraction, or recession. Our early warning indicator confirms this...
By Gibbons Burke
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Macy's - Bottoming?
FREE - 3/14
Macy's has tested its 20-day lowest lows in two of the last 3 trading days; however, in both instances, M recovered to finish the day with a rally. M enjoyed a 0.3% gain on Thursday, one day after its 10-day average crossed below its 50-day average.
By Ryan Soudan
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Quicksilver Resources - SeasonalEdge
FREE - 3/13
Quicksilver Resources have seen a great run in the midst of a bearish market gaining over 75% since September began. SeasonalEdge shows that this trend should continue at about the same pace.
By Mickey Schoenhals
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BorgWarner - Crossing Trend Lines
FREE - 3/13
BorgWarner has been tip-toeing along a line of support around $40 per share. Wednesday the 50-day average crossed below the 200-day average. How will the stock respond in the past to these major trend lines crossing?
By Mickey Schoenhals
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Bank of America - Stock Price Fighting Back?
FREE - 3/13
Bank of America has not been spared in the credit crisis that has plagued many banks for what is quickly becoming the better part of a year now. Is this another opportunity to nibble on the dips and sell the rips in the beleaguered financial sector?
By Ryan Soudan
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S&P 500 Index - Getting a fix and getting high
FREE - 3/12
Like a heroin addict after a fix, stocks rallied sharply today, flush with a liquidity injection from its pusher the Fed. The S&P 500 index opened high and finished higher - a 'very big' 3.7% trend-day gain that set the shorts back on their heels...
By Gibbons Burke
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General Electric - A Trend Reversal Signal
FREE - 3/12
Off some -25% from last October highs, GE joined in yesterday's Bernanke-led rally, gaining $1.70, or 5.4%, closing at $33.40 with an 'extra big' gain on the day. The relative enormity of yesterday's move suggests a trend reversal in favor of the bulls.
By Jay Pasch
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Abbot Laboratories - Pulling off its Lows
FREE - 3/12
Abbot Laboratories traded down to a low of $50.32, one cent below the previous day's low. In fact, ABT has traded to new 13-week lows over five consecutive trading days. ABT eventually settled 0.5% higher on Tuesday with a share price of $50.86.
By Ryan Soudan
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Rohm and Haas - Chemically Balanced
FREE - 3/11
Shares of Rohm and Haas tend to rally after having a 'trend day' decline while posting a 'very large' five day decline. With the stock closing at $50.93, should we expect a turnaround rally or a continued decline?
By Pratik Shah
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British Pound in Swiss Franc - No Support In Sight
FREE - 3/11
The value of a British Pound in Swiss Franc went through a 'big' decline to start the week after closing last week with a similar rally. After dropping from the CHF2.4 mark down below CHF2.1, can the exchange rate come back and rally or continue to drop?
By Pratik Shah
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Coffee Futures - Reversal of Fortune
FREE - 3/5
Coffee Futures experienced a 'very big' 'bearish reversal' to close with a price of 160.65 cents/lb.. As recently as Friday, KC was trading at a 52-week high, but has a short-term top been reached? Let us turn to history...
By Ryan Soudan
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Dollar in Yen - Meltdown
FREE - 3/4
The Dollar continues to deteriorate in value versus the Japanese Yen, approaching support at the low set in 2004 at JPY101.7 which was a test of the previous low in 1999 at 101.3. The exchange rate closed on Monday at 103.466...
By Gibbons Burke
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Honda Motors Company - Breaking off its Highs
FREE - 3/3
Honda Motors Company gapped lower on both Thursday and Friday. Despite this HMC finished out the week losing only -0.4% in the five trading days, as on Wednesday, it crossed above its 20-day highest high.
By Ryan Soudan
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The Russell 2000 Index - Continuation
FREE - 2/29
The Russell 2000 remains in a steep downtrend measured by its 200, 100, and 50-day averages. As a result of the big 1.5% decline on Thursday RUT also crossed below its 20, 10, and 5-day averages. With a closing price of 705.72, let us turn to history...
By Ryan Soudan
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Heating Oil Futures - Highest High
FREE - 2/29
On Thursday, Heating Oil Futures traded to a 52-week high for the 3rd time in 4 days. HO closed Thursday with a price of 284.56 exactly on its daily high of 284.56.
By Ryan Soudan
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Tredegar Industries- Buying the Pullback
FREE - 2/29
Tredegar Industries gave back $1.60, or -8.7%, closing at $16.71 during yesterday's trade, retesting this week's double-bottom breakout by printing back-to-back days that were 'very big' in range, history of which a win for the bulls.
By Jay Pasch
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Apple Inc. - Bottoming?
FREE - 2/28
Shares in Apple Inc. traded to a 13-week low for the second time in three days on Tuesday, but rebounded strongly on Wednesday, gaining a 'big' 3.2% to finish the session with a share price of $122.96. What does history say about such moves?
By Ryan Soudan
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Euro in British Pounds - Very Big Rally
FREE - 2/28
The value of a Euro in British pounds jumped dramatically on Wednesday in inter-bank trading, gaining a 'very big' 1.3% from the previous day's 'close' in New York at GBP0.7632. The exchange rate also crossed above the upper Bollinger band...
By Gibbons Burke
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Reliance Steel & Aluminum - Bollinger breakout
FREE - 2/27
After plunging from a high near $60 in late October 2007 down to a low of $43 in late January, Reliance seems to be mounting a strong attack on the $60 level again. The stock closed on Tuesday at $57.45, after making a 13-week high...
By Gibbons Burke
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Heating Oil - Bullish Seasonal
FREE - 2/22
One might be exused for thinking that after the peak of winter, demand for heating oil would slacken off as we move into the warmer spring, leading to lower prices. But history seems to indicate the opposite is true...
By Gibbons Burke
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Edwards Lifesciences - Can't Keep a Good Stock Down
FREE - 2/15
Shares in the provider of products and technologies for those with cardiovascular disease suffered a mild infarction starting on Wednesday with a repeat episode on Thursday. Like much of the market EW has been trending down since October peak...
By Gibbons Burke
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Gold Futures - Gapping Up and Down
FREE - 2/13
The Gold Futures market gapped up on both Friday and Monday only to gap lower on Tuesday, losing a big -1.7% on its value on the day to close at $907.40 per ounce. Let us turn to history for a closer look at similar moves in gold in the past...
By Ryan Soudan
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Conoco Phillips - Trend Day Declines in February
FREE - 2/6
Conoco Phillips saw a 'big' gap open move to the downside and continued down all day to close with a 'big' decline of -4.6%, closing at $76.09 and removing some of the gains of last week. The daily bar formed a 'trend day' pattern...
By Gibbons Burke
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Big Blue Wrecking Crew Wrecks Patriot's Perfect Season
FREE - 2/4
This evenings contest between the New York Giants and the previously undefeated New England Patriots was an exciting Super Bowl - one of the most closely contested matches in memory. The Giants prevailed - will the mood in the markets be affected?
By Gibbons Burke
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Microtune Inc- Seasonally Out of Tune
FREE - 2/4
Shares of Microtune fell 6% on Friday, contrary to a bullish market session, with shares dropping 35 cents closing at $5.49, front-running a coming period of bearish seasonality.
By Jay Pasch
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Fording Canadian Coal Trust - Red Hot
FREE - 1/30
Fording Coal continues to consolidate after last week's explosive 13-point move to challenge its all-time highs. History suggests a period of continued consolidation before a break into all-time highs. FDG closed nearly unchanged, up 9 cents at $43.30.
By Jay Pasch
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S&P 500 Index - Quintuple Plunge
FREE - 1/24
The S&P 500 index has seen several heart-stopping plunges to intra-day lows in the last week, but Wednesday's was different - it actually rallied from a 3.1% deficit at the low of the day to a 2.1% gain on the day - an event that hasn't occurred since...
By Anthony Kolton and Gibbons Burke
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Light Crude Futures - Buy the Dip?
FREE - 1/24
Crude Oil Futures have declined in consecutive days, including a -2.5% decline Wednesday. Tuesday, its 10-day average crossed below its 50-day average. However historically, this bear signal appears to be false, and in fact, it actually seems bullish...
By Ryan Soudan
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S&P 500 Index Futures - Follow the Smart Money (CORRECT)
FREE - 1/23
The S&P 500 Index Futures have been in a bit of a free fall, as it seems selling has only begotten further selling. With Commercial Hedgers sticking their toes in the water, is it time traders considered doing the same, at least for the short-term?
By Ryan Soudan
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Martin Luther King Pushes Insurance out of Favor?
FREE - 1/23
AON and Aetna both closed lower on Tuesday and these stocks have more in common than just insurance; they both perform poorly in the weeks after Martin Luther King Day.
By Ryan Soudan
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Fed lowers Federal Funds and Discount Rates 75 bp - UNPRECEDENTED
FREE - 1/22
The Fed, doing its part in the Plunge Protection effort, today lowered the short-term interest rates by 75 basis points, an unprecedented easing after equity markets opened sharply lower following the holiday where overseas markets were hammered...
By Gibbons Burke
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Autoliv, Inc. - Hitting 52-week Lows
FREE - 1/22
Autoliv, Inc shares hit new 52-week lows for the majority of last week, takings hits on 4 out of the last 5 days of the week. The value of each share dropped to $45.75. Have they hit resistance?
By Pratik Shah
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United States Steel Corp - Waffling on its 50
FREE - 1/22
United States Steel Corp first crossed below and then above its 200, 100, and 50 day averages on successive days finishing out last week. The stock closed with a share price of $104.72 with a 'big' gain on Friday.
By Ryan Soudan
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Monsanto - Digging Deep
FREE - 1/18
Monsanto has shed a rare 'extra large' five-day decline of 18.4%, with three 'big' declines in a row, and the last two were 'very big'. The violence of this downdraft, coming right after the stock made an all-time high, is astounding...
By Gibbons Burke
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Lumber Futures - Cut Down
FREE - 1/18
Lumber futures have been in a steep decline, losing 8% in the last 5 trading days. They gaped lower to close at 227.5 on Thursday, and history seems to suggest that the declines will not stop there.
By Ryan Soudan
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Harmonic Inc. - Time to Own
FREE - 1/16
Harmonic Inc has been beaten down a bit since the start of November, moving from above $12 to $9.32, where it closed on Tuesday. A seasonal pattern has developed in HLIT, suggesting that this is a great time to own.
By Ryan Soudan
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Crude Oil - Continuing Weak
FREE - 1/16
Crude Oil futures resumed their decline after a brief attempt at a rally on Monday. The futures market fell a 'big' -2.4% on Tuesday with the front month (February) closing at $91.90/bbl. Will the market bounce?
By Gibbons Burke
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Estee Lauder - Freshening Up
FREE - 1/15
Estee Lauder was rated a 'good buy' by S&P Equity Research on December 14th, and the stock proceeded to have four days of strong rallies. Since then, however, the stock has been bushwhacked. Is Estee Lauder still a 'good buy?'
By Mickey Schoenhals
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Dow - Two weekly declines in January
FREE - 1/14
The Dow on Friday concluded its third week in a row with a weekly decline, losing 844.4 points (-6.3%) over that period. Last week the average fell -1.5% to close at 12,606.3. Can the Dow recover from such a blow so early in the year?
By Anthony Kolton
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Crude Oil Futures - Don't Be Fooled!
FREE - 1/14
Crude Oil has eased its fury as it has lost over -5% in the last week of trading, and has crossed below its 50-day moving average. Things appear to be on a downward trend, but is that the case?
By Mickey Schoenhals
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Yum! Brands - Bear Snack
FREE - 1/11
Yum! Brands, Inc. shares recorded its third rally over the last five trading days on Thursday. The 2.2% gain during Thursday's session was the second consecutive one. But is YUM beginning to lose its flavor?
By Ronish Patel
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Euro in Yen - Depreciating Further?
FREE - 1/9
The value of a Euro in Japanese Yen has bounced back and forth from the JPY160 to JPY165 level since the 2nd week of November. Will we see the exchange rate break through the lower support?
By Pratik Shah
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Sunspots and the Business Cycle
FREE - 1/8
The Sun, for the most part, regulates business activity around the globe. People make hay while the Sun is shining and rest at night. Should it be a surprise, then, to link a longer-term solar cycle with the business cycle?
By Anthony Kolton and Gibbons Burke
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Tis the Seasonal or the Trend?
FREE - 12/20
Stocks continue to move crabwise through this trading range between 1400 and 1550 on the S&P 500 index scale, and a trend-following indicator just fired off a bearish signal. Trend-following signals don't usually work well in trading ranges, however...
By Gibbons Burke
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Sugar - December Sweets
FREE - 12/18
Visions of sugar-plums danced in the heads of traders in the sugar futures market in New York as the market rallied in a gap move above 10.5 cents per pound on Monday, busting through that resistance level. What's fueling the move?
By Gibbons Burke
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Loonie In Yen - Targeting above 112 Yen
FREE - 12/17
The 5-day moving average for the value of a Canadian Dollar in Japanese Yen crossed above the 20-day moving average, signaling a bullish move for the two weeks to follow...
By Pratik Shah
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Equitable Resources - Slumping Returns
FREE - 12/12
Shares of Equitable Resources tend to decline on FOMC Meeting Days similar to Tuesday's...
By Pratik Shah
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Heating Oil - Little Dipper
FREE - 11/29
Heating Oil has lost 'big' on its last two trading days for a total loss of -5%. Will the market bounce back, or is it setting a new trend?
By Mickey Schoenhals
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Anheuser Busch - Very Big Gain in November
FREE - 11/28
Shares in the brewers of Budweiser beer are starting to build up some bullish momentum, with two 'big' gains in the last three trading days combining to bring about a 'very big' five-day percentage gain of 3.9%. Will this momentum carry the stock farther?
By Gibbons Burke
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Light Crude Futures - Buying Opportunity?
FREE - 11/28
Light Crude Futures have pulled off their highs declining in two consecutive days, including a -3.4% decline on Tuesday. Could this be a reversal in trend, or is it simply a better price to be long at? Let us turn to history...
By Ryan Soudan
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Dow - Post-Thanksgiving Declines
FREE - 11/27
The Dow took a 'big' 1.8% dive on Monday after Friday's tryptophan-fueled 'big' 1.4% gain to bring the average to a -3.3% five-day rate of change, which because of recent volatility, is no longer considered 'large'...
By Gibbons Burke
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Expedia.BUY !!!
FREE - 11/19
Expedia stock may not equal the abilities of Expedia.com to help people take to the sky, but Friday's performance of EXPE might just do the trick for shareholders...
By Jason Thompson
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Dow - Veterans Day Seasonal Bullishness
FREE - 11/13
The modern history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, following the 1982 introduction of financial futures on stock indexes, shows a fairly consistent bullish edge into the start of the New Year...
By Gibbons Burke
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Dow Jones Industrial - Secular Trend Change?
FREE - 11/12
Like the OEX, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below its average value over the last 200 trading days on Friday, closing the week with a 'large' five-day decline of -4.1% at 13042.74, having lost 552.36 points during the week...
By Gibbons Burke
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Hindenburg Omen Again
FREE - 11/8
This is just an update to an earlier story featuring the Hindenburg Omen - the event occurred again, according to our criterion, on Monday, November 5th.
By Gibbons Burke
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Monsanto - Trend Days in November
FREE - 11/7
Monsanto shares saw a 'big' 'trend day' rally of 3.6% on Tuesday, closing at $96.74, within striking distance of last Wednesday's all-time high of $98.70, and the round number target $100. How have such 'trend day' rallies played out in the past?
By Gibbons Burke
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Exxon Mobil - Double Bollinger Dip
FREE - 11/5
Exxon Mobil drilled deeper into bearish territory on Thursday and Friday, dropping 4.4% over those two days and making for a 'very large' weekly loss of -4.6%. The stock closed on both days below the lower Bollinger band - is this significant?
By Gibbons Burke
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Treasury Bonds and the Euro
FREE - 11/2
The European Currency fell a 'big' -0.4% on Thursday (basis the close of business in New York) to $1.4425, after making a 52-week high on Wednesday of $1.4505. Treasury Bond futures, however, rallied 'very big'
By Anthony Kolton and Gibbons Burke
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Marathon Oil - Crude Oil Spooked
FREE - 10/31
Marathon Oil lost an 'extra big' 5.2% on Tuesday, in sympathy with the oil market generally as Crude Oil futures fell a 'very big' -3.4%. Is it time to bail on energy stocks just yet? Not according to the history of such spooky moves...
By Gibbons Burke
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S&P 500 - Hindenburg Omen Update
FREE - 10/30
The Hindenburg Omen was triggered again last Friday as there was once again an unusual number of 52-week highs and lows. This is the second time the omen has hit in just over a week. With the Omen now being confirmed, let us turn to history...
By Ryan Soudan
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Crude Oil Futures: Still Bullish?
FREE - 10/26
What does the MIM make of Crude Oil futures two-day rally in light of the Energy Information Administration weekly inventory report?
By Scott Murani
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S&P 500 - Hindenburg Omen
FREE - 10/19
On Wednesday, October 18th, the Hindenburg Omen, a technical market signal named after the Hindenburg tragedy in 1937 was triggered. Let us put this impending turmoil trigger to the historical test...
By Ryan Soudan and Mickey Schoenhals
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Dow-Nasdaq Analog - Updated (through end of 2007)
FREE - 10/12
We update a chart we published back in May 2007 which shows an overlay of the Nasdaq Composite index on top of a chart of the Dow back around the 1929 crash and bear market. We may have reached a top if this analog is a guide...
By Anthony Kolton
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Hansen Natural - To Infinity, and Beyond
FREE - 9/28
Hansen Natural has been surging into new all-time high territory every day so far this week, but on Thursday the stock price declined 0.8% after making a new all-time high at $57.96 to close at $56.67. What comes next?
By Gibbons Burke
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Clorox - Bleached Bears
FREE - 9/27
Clorox shares rallied significantly on Wednesday, gaining a 'big' 1.2% and forming a 'trend day' gain pattern as it crossed above its 20-day high as it climbed out of the hole it jumped into in early August. Do the historical prospects look good?
By Gibbons Burke
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Bear Stearns - Up For Sale
FREE - 9/27
Rumors of Bear Stearns selling up to 20% of its business has got the stock soaring sky high, but is it too high too fast?
By Mickey Schoenhals
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Dow Jones Industrial Average - Bulls Continue the Stampede
FREE - 9/20
The bulls took a victory lap on Wednesday, adding another 76.17 points to the Dow, pushing the index up 0.6% to close at 13815.56. Today we highlight the Dow's history in the context of this week's price action and FOMC rate cut.
By Jay Pasch
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Energizer - Will it Keep Going?
FREE - 9/20
Energizer Holdings rallied 1.8% on Wednesday, making the second one percent or better move in as many days. Tuesday the stock rallied 1.9%. The gains lofted the stock above the king of technical indicators - a new all time high...
By Gibbons Burke
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SPX Mid-Cap 400 Index - Very Big Gain
FREE - 9/19
The Mid-cap 400 Stock index enjoyed a 'very big' 3.0% gain on Tuesday along with the rest of the stock market's ebullient reaction to the Federal Funds rate cut announced yesterday afternoon. Is this the start of something good?
By Gibbons Burke
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S&P 500 Futures - Trend Day Friday
FREE - 9/17
The S&P 500 index has rallied nicely in each of the last four trading days of last week, bringing the market, basis the futures, to a 1.7% gain for the week, a nice show of strength amidst so much doom and gloom about the credit market...
By Gibbons Burke
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Dressed for Success
FREE - 9/14
Dress Barn shares fell back to test support at the $16 level on Thursday with a 2.1% 'trend day' decline below the lower Bollinger band whose lows took the stock to a new 52-week low. This rash of bearishness isn't promising till we look at history...
By Gibbons Burke
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Google - Earning Its Keep
FREE - 9/13
Google is, tentatively, scheduled to announce earnings on October 18th, 2007. As of Wednesday's close we have 26 trading days between now and then. The crowd following Google is used to and expecting good news, and the stock reflects this...
By Mickey Schoenhals and Gibbons Burke
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Expediting a Bullish Move
FREE - 9/13
Shares in Expeditors International fell a sharp 2.4% on Wednesday after rallying on Monday and Tuesday, to close at $42.37 and bringing the five-day return down to -2.9%. The stock has fallen from its August high above $54...
By Gibbons Burke
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Stocks - The Smell of Fear Redux
FREE - 9/10
Major stock indexes took a big tumble on Friday, falling 'big' in all three cases, the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. The Dow and Nasdaq both fell -1.9% while the S&P fell -1.7%. In a flight to quality, Treasury bonds benefitted...
By Gibbons Burke
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The Dow and Employment Disappointments
FREE - 9/10
The Dow fell a 'big' -1.9% on Friday on the heels of the monthly Employment Situation report, which was a disappointment for economists. Have we seen such reactions before?
By Gibbons Burke
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S&P 500 Index - Retreat to the Rally Point
FREE - 9/4
In military tactical planning for a special forces mission, a unit is given the objective and a rally point - a location where, after the attack, the unit will meet to gather to retreat from the arena in an orderly fashion, or to meet a counter attack...
By Gibbons Burke
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Wheat Futures - One Day Edge
FREE - 8/30
Wheat Futures have performed very well as of late, closing up a big 3% on Wednesday to close at 742. Is there any steam left in this rally?
By Ryan Soudan
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Gilead Sciences - Bollinger Band Success?
FREE - 8/30
Gilead Sciences has closed below its lower Bollinger Band for two days in a row. Have the shares his a resistance level?
By Pratik Shah
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Republic Services - A Bullish Moving average Crossing
FREE - 8/20
Closing the week of August-10 with a bullish cross above its 200-period moving average, Republic Services posted a negligible 17-cent loss last week to close at $29.81. Today we bring to the table a robust presentation of statistics in favor of the bulls.
By Jay Pasch
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Fed Changes DISCOUNT rate
FREE - 8/17
Here is an updated version of Friday morning's trading idea with the correct rate change applied - in this case the Discount Rate, not the Federal Funds rate....
By Gibbons Burke
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Crude Oil - In it for the Long Haul
FREE - 8/13
Crude Oil has seen 3 consecutive losses that drop the market below the 50-day moving average. Though hedgers were correct by being net short for at least the last 5 trading days, they may want to reconsider their position.
By Mickey Schoenhals
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Natural Gas Futures - Ready to Sink?
FREE - 6/5
Natural Gas Futures, traded at the New York Mercantile Exchange, saw a 'very big' gain of 4% during Monday's session to be up 5.3% over the last five trading days despite declining on three of the five days. But what goes up, must come down...
By Ronish Patel
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Dow 1930s versus Nasdaq in the New Millennium (UPDATED Chart)
FREE - 5/3
When the market declined over 3% one day back on February 27, I mentioned that I thought that this was not the beginning of the end for the stock market, but not just yet. A chart we have published before is still playing out in an interesting way...
By Anthony Kolton
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Fastenal - Fast Recovery?
FREE - 4/13
Fastenal shares have been resurrected from a beaten down place having fallen from a high at $43.20 level in October 2006 down to the recent lows in early March at $33.00. But Thursday's move came in a surge of trading...
By Gibbons Burke
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Dow - First Negative Quarter since June 2005 [UPDATED with option strategy]
FREE - 4/2
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the first quarter of 2007 with a -0.87% decline, ending the quarter on Friday at 12354.35. This is the first negative quarter since 2Q 2005, and it ended a six quarter streak, the longest since 3Q 1997...
By Anthony Kolton and Gibbons Burke
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AMEX Oil Index- On the March
FREE - 3/15
The AMEX oil index, XOI, rose nearly 1% to close at 1150 in Wednesday's trading with a March cross above its 50-period moving average. History suggests a high percentage bullish trade on this event.
By Jay Pasch
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Stock Market Lunacy - Have the Bulls Been Eclipsed?
FREE - 3/5
If you watched the news over the weekend, there was a total lunar eclipse. Since it was cloudy here in Chicago, I did not get a chance to see it, but we may feel the ripple effects in the market over the next few months...
By Anthony Kolton
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Stocks - Naming Calls
FREE - 2/28
Stocks sold off today in a big way, fulfilling all the wishes of the people mentioning the lack of a 2% correction in a while. They got that and some... What's next?
By Anthony Kolton and Gibbons Burke
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Deal or No Deal - "Dick Butkus and Scottie Pippin assist"
FREE - 2/16
Tony Kolton, Founder and president of Logical Information Machines, MarketHistory's parent company, will appear on GE's NBC network "Deal or No Deal" show on Sunday at 7:00 pm EST, (6:00 pm CST), playing for $1 million dollars...
By Gibbons Burke
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From the It's Logical Blog - Cold Weather Freezes Orange Juice Demand?
FREE - 2/9
LIM founder and MarketHistory.com president Tony Kolton published a trading idea on Orange Juice futures related to cold weather affects on the market in his It's Logical blog....
By Anthony Kolton and Gibbons Burke
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The Hershey Company - Sweet Returns (UPDATED with option strategy)
FREE - 1/24
The Hershey Company shares have been very strong of late rallying 7 of the last 8 trading days for a gain of 4.1%. Earnings Report for Hershey comes out today, and has been very good news in past January's. What will this year hold?
By Mickey Schoenhals
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Dow - Big Drop Before Christmas
FREE - 12/26
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped on Friday by 0.62% to close at 12343.22. Coming just before Christmas, what does this mean?
By Anthony Kolton
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S&P 500 Futures - Small Traders Extremely Short
FREE - 10/18
Traders in the S&P 500 index futures market with positions too small to report to the CFTC are net short of contracts in the market - and the net position of this category is as short as we've seen in the last year. What's the significance?
By Gibbons Burke
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Employment Situation
FREE - 10/9
Friday's Employment Situation report shows an interesting mixed picture - jobs grew, but at the slowest pace since the aftermath of hurricane Katrina last year, according to the Wall Street Journal. Yet unemployment was lower than expected...
By Gibbons Burke
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Dow Jones - All Time High
FREE - 10/4
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finally broke into new all-time high territory on Wednesday after a week of anticipation and speculation. The intra-day high peaked at 11758.95 and closed at a record high close at 11727.34...
By Gibbons Burke
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Coach - Very Big Decline
FREE - 8/25
Shares in luxury leather retailer Coach were rendered and tanned on Thursday, dropping a 'very big' -4.2%. This follows two 'big' declines in the last five trading days, which have seen a -6.1% drop over the last week...
By Gibbons Burke
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Starbuck's - Secular Trend Change
FREE - 8/21
Shares in Starbuck's Corp. have seen a bit of a drawdown since the high of $39.88 set in May, closing last Friday at $31.13. The stock has gained 4.1% in the last week, however, although Friday saw a -0.5% decline. Is the stock poised to make a rebound?
By Gibbons Burke
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Nasdaq Composite - Very Big Gain
FREE - 8/16
The composite index of all stocks trading on the Nasdaq exchange rallied strongly on Tuesday, gaining a 'very big' 2.2% to close at 2,115.01, and the strength was enough to cause the index to close above its upper Bollinger band...
By Gibbons Burke
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Payroll Employment - Recession Indicator
FREE - 8/7
July's Employment Situation report showed a continuation of the status quo since April. The number of jobs increased by 113,000. This represents solid job growth - the economy is neither overheating, nor it melting down...
By Gibbons Burke
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S&P 500 Index - Crash Warning?
FREE - 6/30
The ebullient response of the stock market to yesterday's 17-in-a-row short-end rate hike seems to be a good thing from a historical point of view - lots of bullish edges showing up. But there's an interesting historical caveat...
By Gibbons Burke
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NASDAQ - Beginnings of a Meltdown?
FREE - 5/15
Stocks ended the week on a sour note, with two significantly sharp declines in most indexes, and in the case of the NASDAQ which declined in four of the five trading days last week, dropping 4.2% of its value over the course of the week...
By Gibbons Burke
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S&P 500 - Buy the Dip - Again?
FREE - 2/8
The S&P 500 has lost 3.2% of its value since making a high of 1,294.90 on 11 January 2006. The last five trading days have been especially weak, with a 'large' 2.0% decline. Tuesday saw a 'big' 0.8% decline to close at 1,254.78. Will the decline continue?
By Gibbons Burke
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Five-year Notes - Weak Week
FREE - 1/31
The Five-year Treasury Note futures have seen a washout decline over the last five trading days, falling a 'very large' -0.7% to close on Monday at 105-25/32. The futures contract is also below its 200-day average price...
By Gibbons Burke
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Dow Crosses above 11,000 - A History
FREE - 1/17
Looking at the history of the Dow's attempts to muster the energy to surpass the 11,000 level back in 2001 we may get an idea of why the rally has sputtered again this time...
By Gibbons Burke
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S&P 500 Index - Buy the Dip?
FREE - 12/28
The S&P 500 index shed 1.0% of its value on Tuesday, a 'very big' decline to 1,256.54 and it was a 'trend day' decline, which occurs when the open of the day is within 20% of the daily range near the high, and the close is within 20% of the low...
By Gibbons Burke
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S&P 500 - Another Reason to be Bullish
FREE - 11/8
The S&P 500 index of the biggest and most significant public companies in the U.S. equities market gained slightly in September but dropped 1.77% in October. How has this combination of returns affected the market in the past?
By Gibbons Burke
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S&P 500 - Ready for a Rampage
FREE - 11/2
The Investors Intelligence organization released their weekly summary of investment newsletter sentiment on Wednesday. How have their numbers fared against ensuing market activity in the past?
By Anthony Kolton and Herman L. Waterford III
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S&P Hat Trick - Part I
FREE - 11/1
The Commitments of Traders report issued Friday shows the Small Trader category to be net long of 9,429 contracts. While they are still net 'long', this is actually the closest they've been to being short in the last year...
By Gibbons Burke
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Eensy Weensy SPYder Crawled Up The Spout Again
FREE - 10/20
The SPYder Exchange Traded Fund which tracks the movements of the S&P 500 Index of stocks enjoyed a 1.9% gain, 'very big' on our volatility-normalized scale on Wednesday, the anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash...
By Gibbons Burke
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S&P 500 Index - Time for the rebound?
FREE - 10/13
Stocks have taken quite a pummeling of late, but a historical study suggests that we may be due for a relief rally....
By Anthony Kolton and Gibbons Burke
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Indexes - Bearish Reversal
FREE - 10/4
As Jason Thompson noted in a trading idea earlier today the S&P 500 Index posted an Outside Day pattern and found it interesting what happens when it occurs on a Monday in October. An outside day decline is also called a Bearish Reversal....
By Gibbons Burke
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S&P 500 - Fed Fund Report Day
FREE - 9/22
September 20 was a federal open market committee report day, and the fed fund rate was hiked yet again, the eleventh straight raise in the rate. The S&P 500 has been down 0.75% the last two trading days...
By Anthony Kolton and Eitan Boral
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Katrina
FREE - 8/31
Note from editor Gibbons Burke, safe in Austin, Texas
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Crude Oil - Ahead Of Schedule!
FREE - 8/11
The Market Information Maching predicted a big rise in Crude Oil over the next 70 trading days back on June 1, 2005. The triggers for this idea were the price movements of the other commodities in the energy complex...
By Anthony Kolton and Eitan Boral
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Buy Best Buy now and don't wait for a sale
FREE - 6/15
Best Buy closed up more than 14% on Tuesday at $67.80, on more than 4 times average daily volume. A bullish sign!
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This Week's Top 20 Stock Analog Charts
FREE - 5/23
This week's best-matching historical analog charts...
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Employment Picture
FREE - 5/9
Here's a look at our Employment Chart - showing the net growth/loss of jobs over the last three months, which serves as our recession early warning indicator. As of Friday's numbers, the U.S. economy still look strong...
By Gibbons Burke
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Gap Stores--On Sale for Christmas?
FREE - 12/13
Gap Stores (GPS) has declined steadily during the month of December and hit a 20-day low on Friday. How has GPS performed in the past when it has hit a 20-day low during the month of December?
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This Week's Top 20 Stock Analog Charts
FREE - 7/12
Check out our new Analog Charts: Exchange Traded Funds, Canadian, Japanese and European stocks, and foreign currency exchange rates.
By Gibbons Burke
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Inflation: CPI Breaks Secular Downtrend
FREE - 6/15
Today's CPI report shows the annual rate of change in the CPI at 3.1%. This breaks the down trend which has been in place since rates last peaked in late 1990. The down trend in Core inflation remains intact...
By Gibbons Burke
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The End of Cheap Oil?
FREE - 6/3
The June 2004 issue of National Geographic, which I received in the mail recently, has in a bold headline "THE END OF CHEAP OIL". When a non-financial magazine such as this features an economic story on its cover, it usually means the trend is done...
By Gibbons Burke
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Inflation - Sound and Fury?
FREE - 4/16
This week's CPI report has garnered a fair amount of attention in the press, with everybody whooping up the "inflation is back" war cry. Has the trend really reversed? Let's take a look...
By Gibbons Burke
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Inflation - The Secular Trend is Still Heading Downward
FREE - 2/23
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index figures for January on Friday, and while the numbers showed a slight uptick, the trend is still down...
By Gibbons Burke
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Indices are more predictable when they agree
FREE - 2/17
Both NASD and SPX follow positive momentum with good moves -- which predicts better?
By Chris Cooper
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Cypress Earnings on Friday (CORRECT)
FREE - 12/31
Cypress Semiconductor will be releasing earnings on [Friday] January 22nd. How has the stock performed in the past after January earnings announcements?
By Gibbons Burke
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Micron Earnings - Depends on How You Slice It
FREE - 12/23
Micron Technology is scheduled to release earnings after trading closes on Tuesday. We have two different views of which way the stock may break...
By Gibbons Burke
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Lindsay Manufacturing - December Earnings Patterns
FREE - 12/22
Lindsay Manufacturing, which makes irrigation systems, announced stonger revenues on lower margin in fiscal year first quarter 2004 resuts this morning. How has the stock performed after December earnings releases in the past?
By Gibbons Burke
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Conagra Releases Earnings
FREE - 12/22
How has the food processing giant's stock performed in the wake of December earnings release when the stock rallies on the day earnings are announced?
By Gibbons Burke
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Vans Inc Losses Widen
FREE - 12/19
Sports-gear maker Vans reported wider quarterly losses on Friday morning even though sales were up. The stock is well above its 200-day average - how has the stock performed in the past after earnings are released?
By Gibbons Burke
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Steelcase - Christmas Earnings Dip and Rebound
FREE - 12/19
Office products manufacturer Steelcase reported narrower earnings on Thursday after the close. What's the history of the stock's performance after December earnings are announced?
By Gibbons Burke
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Carnival - Cruise Control
FREE - 12/18
Cruise-line operator Carnival announced slightly improved earnings on Thursday morning before the open and after opening lower than Wednesday's close the stock has rallied 3.5% off of the low. How has the stock performed after December earnings?
By Gibbons Burke
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Fedex Corp - Post-Earnings Stumble
FREE - 12/17
Fedex announced earnings on Wednesday morning, and the subsequent price action erased the gains mentioned in the Pre-Earnings Momentum trading idea. However, when we looked at how the stock performs after such reactions, we're still bullish...
By Gibbons Burke
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Nike - A Spring in their Step?
FREE - 12/17
Shoemaker Nike will release earnings on Thursday after the market's close. The stock is in a holding pattern right now, consolidating recent gains in a decent up trend. How has the stock fared after December earnings in this situation?
By Gibbons Burke
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General Mills - Pre-Earnings Pop
FREE - 12/17
General Mills had a nice rally on Tuesday, gaining 2.6% over Monday's close. The company will webcast earnings after Wednesday's market close. How has the stock performed after such moves prior to the release of December earnings?
By Gibbons Burke
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Fedex Corp - Pre-Earnings Momentum
FREE - 12/16
Fedex will announce earnings on Wednesday before the market opens. In the five trading days ending on Tuesday, the stock has gained 3.6%. How has the stock performed in the past after earnings are announced the day after such momentum?
By Gibbons Burke
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Oracle and VIX
FREE - 12/16
The CBOE volatility index rose 5% on Monday and Oracle released earnings after the bell. What has happened in the past when the VIX Volatility Index climbs more than 4% on the day Oracle releases earnings?
By William B. Noble
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Oracle - Handicapping December Earnings
FREE - 12/15
Orcale Corporation is scheduled to release earnings after the market closes today. How has the stock performed in the past after earnings announcements in December?
By Gibbons Burke
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Budget Deficit - Is It Really All That?
FREE - 7/17
Putting the current budget deficit numbers into historical perspective as an antidote to the hysterical scare-mongering found in some of today's newspapers...
By Gibbons Burke
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Hurricane Claudette and Crude Oil
FREE - 7/15
How have past hurricanes making landfall in Texas or Louisiana affected crude oil prices?
By Cyril Picardi
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Blue Monday
FREE - 6/24
The Dow on Monday closed down 127.8 points or 1.4%. A history of 100 point Monday drops from the Dow's past indicates the situation may be something you can play to the upside.
By Gibbons Burke
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Stocks - Taking it on the Chin as Government Yields Decline Further
FREE - 5/21
Stocks have taken a beating this week as "safe harbor" interest rate yields on government debt have broken through the "don't go there girlfriend" barriers in many observer's minds. What's happened in the past under similar circumstances?
By Gibbons Burke
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T-Bonds - Record-day Runs
FREE - 5/19
If the market closes higher today this will be the 11th consecutive day without a down close for Bond futures. This current rally in bond futures is therefore unprecedented... What's happened in past runs to the upside? By James A. Bianco
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When have we seen deflation before?
FREE - 5/14
Economist Robert Samuelson asserted in the Washington Post today that deflation "hasn't happened in the United States since the Great Depression". The MIM is a great debunker, and this query shows that we've had several such episodes...
By Gibbons Burke
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Wheat - Wow!
FREE - 5/12
History suggests moves to the up side like we saw on Friday have been short-lived...By Robert J. O'Brien Jr.
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El Niño Rallies in Beans
FREE - 1/7
Yesterday before turning around and finishing slightly lower, January Soybean futures nudged above a 3-month high. Happening as it has in an El Niño weather pattern year, what does this mean?
By Anthony Kolton
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Oddsmaker - Stock Market Commentary
FREE - 7/12
Anthony Kolton's analysis of the market's remarkable reversal rally on Thursday and its prospects over the next several months...
By Anthony Kolton
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